Best Player: Mahrez 7.9 pts

Best GK: Butland  5.9pts

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Best 11

GK Butland 5.9 pts

 

DL Cresswell 2.8 pts

DC Dann 4.1 pts

DC Alderweireld 4.3 pts

DR Walker 2.9 pts

 

DMC Kante 3.5 pts

ML Barkley 5.0 pts

AMC Ozil 5.4 pts

MR Mahrez 7.9 pts

 

FW Lukaku 7.9 pts

FW Vardy 7.8 pts

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One counter-prediction. Everton finishes above Liverpool. Currently L’pool is 11 points ahead in markets. We’ll see.

 

Final dingoach rankings for all time:

Year of the Ranieri.

	Tot ELO	Avg ELO
Alex Ferguson	1990	1.21
Carlo Ancelotti	1502	1.80
Arsène Wenger	1448	1.07
Jupp Heynckes	1267	1.15
José Mourinho	1258	1.96
Bobby Robson	1228	1.03
Fabio Capello	1203	1.84
Giovanni Trapattoni	1163	1.08
Claudio Ranieri	1071	1.21
Brian Clough	1065	1.00

 

 

 

Ho ho ho.

 

Lineals

Arsenal and Empoli are new title holders. Can anyone keep them for at least a month?

	Helmond Cup	dingoB	Sandeman
Holder	Arsenal	Arsenal	Empoli
Next Opp	S’hampton(A)	S’hampton(A)	Inter(A)
Date	26-Dec	26-Dec	6-Jan
Lose?	27%	27%	42%

 

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dingoT

Methodology: dingoT uses 6 different inputs ranging from ELO ratings to market values. The weight of inputs change as season progresses to reduce the importance of forward looking metrics such as betting odds in favor of actual achievements.

 

 

Merry new year for Spurs fans. You are back in top 16 after a while. For ManU fans it’s deja three as the club drops out of 100+ club around mid season for the third year in a row. Coach change is would be really helpful in our opinion as a dingoach top 5 manager has just been fired.

 

Rank	Team	Points
1	Barcelona	142.0
2	Real Madrid	134.2
3	Bayern	133.9
4	Juventus	115.4
5	Paris SG	115.4
6	Atlético	115.3
7	Man City	112.3
8	Chelsea	107.5
9	Arsenal	106.1
10	Dortmund	105.6
11	Man United	99.0
12	Napoli	98.8
13	Porto	97.5
14	Sevilla	96.0
15	Leverkusen	94.7
16	Tottenham	94.1

 

No dingoW’s just EPL games.

 

Lineals

Double lineals are back in England after a short stay in Greece and Germany each.

	Helmond Cup	dingoB	Sandeman
Holder	Man City	Man City	Bologna
Next Opp	Swansea(H)	Swansea(H)	Genoa(A)
Date	12-Dec	12-Dec	12-Dec
Lose?	9%	9%	47%

 

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dingoT

Methodology: dingoT uses 6 different inputs ranging from ELO ratings to market values. The weight of inputs change as season progresses to reduce the importance of forward looking metrics such as betting odds in favor of actual achievements.

Is the sun back on shining at the queens’s empire? Spurs sneak into top 16 and Everton into top 32 mainly due to EPL teams good performance in Europe this week. Bayern drops back to 3rd but it is very close and Fenerbahce are out of top 32 as well as Olympiakos.

1	Barcelona	140.5
2	Real Madrid	134.3
3	Bayern	134.2
4	Atlético	117.0
5	Juventus	115.0
6	Paris SG	114.6
7	Man City	111.8
8	Chelsea	108.3
9	Dortmund	106.2
10	Arsenal	106.1
11	Man United	100.8
12	Napoli	98.4
13	Porto	97.2
14	Sevilla	95.7
15	Liverpool	95.3
16	Tottenham	93.8

 

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dingoW

Methodology: Using dingoT to rate games on 2 metrics – quality (ie. 1 vs 2 is higher than 8 vs 9) and competitiveness (ie. 16 vs 17 is higher than 1 vs 32) to combine into one rating. 75+ games are listed.

 

12/12/15-Saturday
12:30pm Bayer Leverkusen vs Borussia M’gladbach: 76

 

12/13/15-Sunday

 

2:30pm Villarreal vs Real Madrid: 76

 

dingoach Ratings are back with top 10 active managers in all ELO points (gained+protected assuming average drift) and average points. League specific ratings are more precise but too time consuming and at the top of the tables do not matter. Whatever EPL’s reasons for European failure are widely discussed but it is not managerial. I am not sure if a top 10 player in the world plays in EPL right now but top managers are there for sure.

 

	Tot ELO	Avg ELO
Arsène Wenger	1441	1.07
José Mourinho	1255	1.96
Claudio Ranieri	1054	1.20
Manuel Pellegrini	1000	1.96
Rafa Benítez	987	1.12
Roberto Mancini	870	1.55
Louis van Gaal	783	1.07
Unai Emery	750	1.67
Pep Guardiola	652	2.06
Diego Simeone	540	2.54

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	Tot ELO	Avg ELO
Diego Simeone	540	2.54
Pep Guardiola	652	2.06
Manuel Pellegrini	1000	1.96
José Mourinho	1255	1.96
Laurent Blanc	473	1.83
Unai Emery	750	1.67
Roberto Mancini	870	1.55
André Villas-Boas	374	1.46
Marco Silva	186	1.44
Luis Enrique	249	1.31

First of all, I would like to thank WordPress fro making their site unusable. It is free so I will shut up.

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Lineals

Bayern who took over from Olympiakos is going to keep for a long time. My guess March. Napoli can’t keep on winning.

 

	Helmond Cup	dingoB	Sandeman
Holder	Bayern	Bayern	Napoli
Next Opp	Gladbach(A)	Gladbach(A)	Bologna(A)
Date	5-Dec	5-Dec	6-Dec
Lose?	11%	11%	15%

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dingoT

Methodology: dingoT uses 6 different inputs ranging from ELO ratings to market values. The weight of inputs change as season progresses to reduce the importance of forward looking metrics such as betting odds in favor of actual achievements.

Big news is Bayern jumps to 2nd overtaking Real. How is the Rafa experiment going Flo? Valencia also dropped out of top 16 which they are planning to stop with the appointment of a rookie British manager. I’m sure it will work. On the top 32 front Fenerbahce sneaks back in and I’m depressed.

Rank	Team	Points
1	Barcelona	139.9
2	Bayern	136.0
3	Real Madrid	134.4
4	Juventus	115.6
5	Paris SG	115.5
6	Man City	112.2
7	Atlético	110.1
8	Chelsea	109.8
9	Arsenal	107.0
10	Dortmund	106.0
11	Man United	102.2
12	Napoli	99.2
13	Porto	98.0
14	Sevilla	95.4
15	Liverpool	94.7
16	Leverkusen	93.3

 

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dingoW

Methodology: Using dingoT to rate games on 2 metrics – quality (ie. 1 vs 2 is higher than 8 vs 9) and competitiveness (ie. 16 vs 17 is higher than 1 vs 32) to combine into one rating. 75+ games are listed.

 

12/5/15- Saturday

9:30am Borussia M’gladbach vs Bayern München: 86

12:30pm Wolfsburg vs Borussia Dortmund: 83

2:30pm Valencia vs Barcelona: 88

 

12/8/15- Tuesday

2:45pm Wolfsburg vs Manchester United: 82

2:45pm Benfica vs Atlético Madrid: 85

2:45pm Manchester City vs Borussia M’gladbach: 75

2:45pm Sevilla vs Juventus: 87

 

12/9/15- Wednesday

2:45pm Bayer Leverkusen vs Barcelona: 88

2:45pm Chelsea vs Porto: 86

 

There has been a plethora of opinions on why Chelsea is doing horribly. I think every line of thought has been analyzed except for astrology.(Not enough Pisces on the team?) dingoR like many other prediction models were not expecting this performance.  Before the season started we made our points projection based on pts/90 per player and minutes assumptions. Comparing those to 1/3 season dingoR’s give us a good idea who dingoR thinks is responsible:

1- Goalies: We assumed Courtois would play the whole season. Instead he got an early red card against Swansea and then got injured. In 12 games he was expected to contribute 2.8 points to Chelsea. Instead Courtois+Begovic have cost Chelsea 0.9 points. That 3.7 points swing is the biggest difference per any position in our model. This should improve as Courtois comes back and or Begovic plays like his old self.

2- John Terry: We thought John Terry  would play 75% of the minutes available. We were very close (68%). But we also thought (despite a hefty age punishment in our model) he would contribute 0.9 points in that period. Instead he cost the team 1.7 points for a solid 2.6 points. This one is tougher to predict to improve. He is old and maybe he is done.

3-Fantastic Four: Hazard, Fabregas, Oscar and Costa. These players were  mainly responsible for Chelsea’s offense last season. Even though Fabregas and Costa slowed down in second half of last season we still expected them to contribute 10.6 points among them. Instead we got 2 points total. Hazard is the biggest loser with 2.9 points deficit and Fabregas follows him with 2.1. Rest is equally divided between Oscar and Diego Costa. This should also improve; if not we might witness one of the worst projections for dingoR ever.

We’ll review again in 1/2 season and no dingostats tomorrow.

Enjoy!

How to read this? 1 example

Leicester City- Got extra ~7.5 points vs individual match odds so far, expected to get another ~7.5 pts in remaining games vs preseason odds

Methodology Problem: Individual game odds adjust and do not reflect what those odds would have been in preseason.

LC gets more Leicesterry and Chelsea gets more Chelseasque.

New one:

Since the state of the analysis is paralysis, I wanted to do my share. Following uses a very basic +/- model with few adjustments(for minimum games played/unplayed) over 3 seasons for Galatasaray. The twist is rather than use goals, it uses ELO points from clubelo.com. Not all goals are equal; so it tries to adjust for that. Other than that it has many failings:

1-Black box- and not Shapley which might be more appropriate

2-3 season of data used to get over noise

3- Starting 11 used as I do not have dynamic Elo numbers(during the game). It is doable but this was easier. So impact subs, etc. are not taken into consideration.

4- I still prefer counting models over agnostic models but if I had a good agnostic one I would try to create a composite one.

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On the other hand:

1-Passes the eye/nose test since I probably watched 95% of Galatasaray games that are in this sample.

2-Just food for thought for others with more time/computing power/better statistical skills.

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Basic formula: Avg. Elo Points in games player started- Avg. Elo Points player did not start

Adjustment: If player started fewer 10 games avg. Elo point for team is assumed for games he is missing and vice versa for games he didn’t start.

Results:

Player	Elo +/-
Sneijder	4.1
Muslera	3.7
Bilal	3.2
Carole	3.0
Sabri	2.7
Selcuk	2.5
Melo	2.3
Yasin	2.0
Emre	1.9
Chedjou	1.8
Denayer	1.6
Semih	1.2
Riera	1.1
Burak	1.1
Telles	1.0
Dany	0.7
Podolski	0.6
Karacan	0.5
Drogba	0.4
Ufuk	0.4
Hamit	0.1
Sinan B.	0.1
Zan	0.0
Umut	-0.4
Burdisso	-0.4
Hakan	-0.4
Jose	-0.5
Engin	-0.9
Amrabat	-0.9
Bruma	-0.9
Hajrovic	-1.3
Aydin	-1.3
Yekta	-1.5
Olcan	-1.9
Pandev	-2.5
Eboue	-2.7
Eray	-2.9
Berk	-3.0
Veysel	-3.2
Ceyhun	-4.0
Koray	-4.3
Dzemaili	-5.1
Tarik	-5.6

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If you have watched any Galatasaray games recently the team has been based on Muslera and Sneijder. Good news is most horrible players are gone or never start except for Olcan.

I know this appeals mostly to Galatasaray fans but EPL ppl can give it a try to create something similar.