Best Player: Mahrez 7.9 pts
Best GK: Butland 5.9pts
Best 11
GK Butland 5.9 pts
DL Cresswell 2.8 pts
DC Dann 4.1 pts
DC Alderweireld 4.3 pts
DR Walker 2.9 pts
DMC Kante 3.5 pts
ML Barkley 5.0 pts
AMC Ozil 5.4 pts
MR Mahrez 7.9 pts
FW Lukaku 7.9 pts
FW Vardy 7.8 pts
One counter-prediction. Everton finishes above Liverpool. Currently L’pool is 11 points ahead in markets. We’ll see.
Final dingoach rankings for all time:
Year of the Ranieri.
| Tot ELO | Avg ELO | |
| Alex Ferguson | 1990 | 1.21 |
| Carlo Ancelotti | 1502 | 1.80 |
| Arsène Wenger | 1448 | 1.07 |
| Jupp Heynckes | 1267 | 1.15 |
| José Mourinho | 1258 | 1.96 |
| Bobby Robson | 1228 | 1.03 |
| Fabio Capello | 1203 | 1.84 |
| Giovanni Trapattoni | 1163 | 1.08 |
| Claudio Ranieri | 1071 | 1.21 |
| Brian Clough | 1065 | 1.00 |
Ho ho ho.
Lineals
Arsenal and Empoli are new title holders. Can anyone keep them for at least a month?
| Helmond Cup | dingoB | Sandeman | |
| Holder | Arsenal | Arsenal | Empoli |
| Next Opp | S’hampton(A) | S’hampton(A) | Inter(A) |
| Date | 26-Dec | 26-Dec | 6-Jan |
| Lose? | 27% | 27% | 42% |
dingoT
Methodology: dingoT uses 6 different inputs ranging from ELO ratings to market values. The weight of inputs change as season progresses to reduce the importance of forward looking metrics such as betting odds in favor of actual achievements.
Merry new year for Spurs fans. You are back in top 16 after a while. For ManU fans it’s deja three as the club drops out of 100+ club around mid season for the third year in a row. Coach change is would be really helpful in our opinion as a dingoach top 5 manager has just been fired.
| Rank | Team | Points |
| 1 | Barcelona | 142.0 |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 134.2 |
| 3 | Bayern | 133.9 |
| 4 | Juventus | 115.4 |
| 5 | Paris SG | 115.4 |
| 6 | Atlético | 115.3 |
| 7 | Man City | 112.3 |
| 8 | Chelsea | 107.5 |
| 9 | Arsenal | 106.1 |
| 10 | Dortmund | 105.6 |
| 11 | Man United | 99.0 |
| 12 | Napoli | 98.8 |
| 13 | Porto | 97.5 |
| 14 | Sevilla | 96.0 |
| 15 | Leverkusen | 94.7 |
| 16 | Tottenham | 94.1 |
No dingoW’s just EPL games.
Lineals
Double lineals are back in England after a short stay in Greece and Germany each.
| Helmond Cup | dingoB | Sandeman | |
| Holder | Man City | Man City | Bologna |
| Next Opp | Swansea(H) | Swansea(H) | Genoa(A) |
| Date | 12-Dec | 12-Dec | 12-Dec |
| Lose? | 9% | 9% | 47% |
dingoT
Methodology: dingoT uses 6 different inputs ranging from ELO ratings to market values. The weight of inputs change as season progresses to reduce the importance of forward looking metrics such as betting odds in favor of actual achievements.
Is the sun back on shining at the queens’s empire? Spurs sneak into top 16 and Everton into top 32 mainly due to EPL teams good performance in Europe this week. Bayern drops back to 3rd but it is very close and Fenerbahce are out of top 32 as well as Olympiakos.
| 1 | Barcelona | 140.5 |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 134.3 |
| 3 | Bayern | 134.2 |
| 4 | Atlético | 117.0 |
| 5 | Juventus | 115.0 |
| 6 | Paris SG | 114.6 |
| 7 | Man City | 111.8 |
| 8 | Chelsea | 108.3 |
| 9 | Dortmund | 106.2 |
| 10 | Arsenal | 106.1 |
| 11 | Man United | 100.8 |
| 12 | Napoli | 98.4 |
| 13 | Porto | 97.2 |
| 14 | Sevilla | 95.7 |
| 15 | Liverpool | 95.3 |
| 16 | Tottenham | 93.8 |
dingoW
Methodology: Using dingoT to rate games on 2 metrics – quality (ie. 1 vs 2 is higher than 8 vs 9) and competitiveness (ie. 16 vs 17 is higher than 1 vs 32) to combine into one rating. 75+ games are listed.
12/12/15-Saturday
12:30pm Bayer Leverkusen vs Borussia M’gladbach: 76
12/13/15-Sunday
2:30pm Villarreal vs Real Madrid: 76
dingoach Ratings are back with top 10 active managers in all ELO points (gained+protected assuming average drift) and average points. League specific ratings are more precise but too time consuming and at the top of the tables do not matter. Whatever EPL’s reasons for European failure are widely discussed but it is not managerial. I am not sure if a top 10 player in the world plays in EPL right now but top managers are there for sure.
| Tot ELO | Avg ELO | |
| Arsène Wenger | 1441 | 1.07 |
| José Mourinho | 1255 | 1.96 |
| Claudio Ranieri | 1054 | 1.20 |
| Manuel Pellegrini | 1000 | 1.96 |
| Rafa Benítez | 987 | 1.12 |
| Roberto Mancini | 870 | 1.55 |
| Louis van Gaal | 783 | 1.07 |
| Unai Emery | 750 | 1.67 |
| Pep Guardiola | 652 | 2.06 |
| Diego Simeone | 540 | 2.54 |
| Tot ELO | Avg ELO | |
| Diego Simeone | 540 | 2.54 |
| Pep Guardiola | 652 | 2.06 |
| Manuel Pellegrini | 1000 | 1.96 |
| José Mourinho | 1255 | 1.96 |
| Laurent Blanc | 473 | 1.83 |
| Unai Emery | 750 | 1.67 |
| Roberto Mancini | 870 | 1.55 |
| André Villas-Boas | 374 | 1.46 |
| Marco Silva | 186 | 1.44 |
| Luis Enrique | 249 | 1.31 |
First of all, I would like to thank WordPress fro making their site unusable. It is free so I will shut up.
Lineals
Bayern who took over from Olympiakos is going to keep for a long time. My guess March. Napoli can’t keep on winning.
| Helmond Cup | dingoB | Sandeman | |
| Holder | Bayern | Bayern | Napoli |
| Next Opp | Gladbach(A) | Gladbach(A) | Bologna(A) |
| Date | 5-Dec | 5-Dec | 6-Dec |
| Lose? | 11% | 11% | 15% |
dingoT
Methodology: dingoT uses 6 different inputs ranging from ELO ratings to market values. The weight of inputs change as season progresses to reduce the importance of forward looking metrics such as betting odds in favor of actual achievements.
Big news is Bayern jumps to 2nd overtaking Real. How is the Rafa experiment going Flo? Valencia also dropped out of top 16 which they are planning to stop with the appointment of a rookie British manager. I’m sure it will work. On the top 32 front Fenerbahce sneaks back in and I’m depressed.
| Rank | Team | Points |
| 1 | Barcelona | 139.9 |
| 2 | Bayern | 136.0 |
| 3 | Real Madrid | 134.4 |
| 4 | Juventus | 115.6 |
| 5 | Paris SG | 115.5 |
| 6 | Man City | 112.2 |
| 7 | Atlético | 110.1 |
| 8 | Chelsea | 109.8 |
| 9 | Arsenal | 107.0 |
| 10 | Dortmund | 106.0 |
| 11 | Man United | 102.2 |
| 12 | Napoli | 99.2 |
| 13 | Porto | 98.0 |
| 14 | Sevilla | 95.4 |
| 15 | Liverpool | 94.7 |
| 16 | Leverkusen | 93.3 |
dingoW
Methodology: Using dingoT to rate games on 2 metrics – quality (ie. 1 vs 2 is higher than 8 vs 9) and competitiveness (ie. 16 vs 17 is higher than 1 vs 32) to combine into one rating. 75+ games are listed.
12/5/15- Saturday
9:30am Borussia M’gladbach vs Bayern München: 86
12:30pm Wolfsburg vs Borussia Dortmund: 83
2:30pm Valencia vs Barcelona: 88
12/8/15- Tuesday
2:45pm Wolfsburg vs Manchester United: 82
2:45pm Benfica vs Atlético Madrid: 85
2:45pm Manchester City vs Borussia M’gladbach: 75
2:45pm Sevilla vs Juventus: 87
12/9/15- Wednesday
2:45pm Bayer Leverkusen vs Barcelona: 88
2:45pm Chelsea vs Porto: 86
There has been a plethora of opinions on why Chelsea is doing horribly. I think every line of thought has been analyzed except for astrology.(Not enough Pisces on the team?) dingoR like many other prediction models were not expecting this performance. Before the season started we made our points projection based on pts/90 per player and minutes assumptions. Comparing those to 1/3 season dingoR’s give us a good idea who dingoR thinks is responsible:
1- Goalies: We assumed Courtois would play the whole season. Instead he got an early red card against Swansea and then got injured. In 12 games he was expected to contribute 2.8 points to Chelsea. Instead Courtois+Begovic have cost Chelsea 0.9 points. That 3.7 points swing is the biggest difference per any position in our model. This should improve as Courtois comes back and or Begovic plays like his old self.
2- John Terry: We thought John Terry would play 75% of the minutes available. We were very close (68%). But we also thought (despite a hefty age punishment in our model) he would contribute 0.9 points in that period. Instead he cost the team 1.7 points for a solid 2.6 points. This one is tougher to predict to improve. He is old and maybe he is done.
3-Fantastic Four: Hazard, Fabregas, Oscar and Costa. These players were mainly responsible for Chelsea’s offense last season. Even though Fabregas and Costa slowed down in second half of last season we still expected them to contribute 10.6 points among them. Instead we got 2 points total. Hazard is the biggest loser with 2.9 points deficit and Fabregas follows him with 2.1. Rest is equally divided between Oscar and Diego Costa. This should also improve; if not we might witness one of the worst projections for dingoR ever.
We’ll review again in 1/2 season and no dingostats tomorrow.
Enjoy!
How to read this? 1 example
Leicester City- Got extra ~7.5 points vs individual match odds so far, expected to get another ~7.5 pts in remaining games vs preseason odds
Methodology Problem: Individual game odds adjust and do not reflect what those odds would have been in preseason.
LC gets more Leicesterry and Chelsea gets more Chelseasque.
New one:
Since the state of the analysis is paralysis, I wanted to do my share. Following uses a very basic +/- model with few adjustments(for minimum games played/unplayed) over 3 seasons for Galatasaray. The twist is rather than use goals, it uses ELO points from clubelo.com. Not all goals are equal; so it tries to adjust for that. Other than that it has many failings:
1-Black box- and not Shapley which might be more appropriate
2-3 season of data used to get over noise
3- Starting 11 used as I do not have dynamic Elo numbers(during the game). It is doable but this was easier. So impact subs, etc. are not taken into consideration.
4- I still prefer counting models over agnostic models but if I had a good agnostic one I would try to create a composite one.
On the other hand:
1-Passes the eye/nose test since I probably watched 95% of Galatasaray games that are in this sample.
2-Just food for thought for others with more time/computing power/better statistical skills.
Basic formula: Avg. Elo Points in games player started- Avg. Elo Points player did not start
Adjustment: If player started fewer 10 games avg. Elo point for team is assumed for games he is missing and vice versa for games he didn’t start.
Results:
| Player | Elo +/- |
| Sneijder | 4.1 |
| Muslera | 3.7 |
| Bilal | 3.2 |
| Carole | 3.0 |
| Sabri | 2.7 |
| Selcuk | 2.5 |
| Melo | 2.3 |
| Yasin | 2.0 |
| Emre | 1.9 |
| Chedjou | 1.8 |
| Denayer | 1.6 |
| Semih | 1.2 |
| Riera | 1.1 |
| Burak | 1.1 |
| Telles | 1.0 |
| Dany | 0.7 |
| Podolski | 0.6 |
| Karacan | 0.5 |
| Drogba | 0.4 |
| Ufuk | 0.4 |
| Hamit | 0.1 |
| Sinan B. | 0.1 |
| Zan | 0.0 |
| Umut | -0.4 |
| Burdisso | -0.4 |
| Hakan | -0.4 |
| Jose | -0.5 |
| Engin | -0.9 |
| Amrabat | -0.9 |
| Bruma | -0.9 |
| Hajrovic | -1.3 |
| Aydin | -1.3 |
| Yekta | -1.5 |
| Olcan | -1.9 |
| Pandev | -2.5 |
| Eboue | -2.7 |
| Eray | -2.9 |
| Berk | -3.0 |
| Veysel | -3.2 |
| Ceyhun | -4.0 |
| Koray | -4.3 |
| Dzemaili | -5.1 |
| Tarik | -5.6 |
If you have watched any Galatasaray games recently the team has been based on Muslera and Sneijder. Good news is most horrible players are gone or never start except for Olcan.
I know this appeals mostly to Galatasaray fans but EPL ppl can give it a try to create something similar.
