Category: Uncategorized

dingoR EPL MidSeason Awards

Best Player: Mahrez 7.9 pts

Best GK: Butland  5.9pts


 

Best 11

GK Butland 5.9 pts

 

DL Cresswell 2.8 pts

DC Dann 4.1 pts

DC Alderweireld 4.3 pts

DR Walker 2.9 pts

 

DMC Kante 3.5 pts

ML Barkley 5.0 pts

AMC Ozil 5.4 pts

MR Mahrez 7.9 pts

 

FW Lukaku 7.9 pts

FW Vardy 7.8 pts


 

One counter-prediction. Everton finishes above Liverpool. Currently L’pool is 11 points ahead in markets. We’ll see.

 

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dingoach 2015

Final dingoach rankings for all time:

Year of the Ranieri.

Tot ELO Avg ELO
Alex Ferguson 1990 1.21
Carlo Ancelotti 1502 1.80
Arsène Wenger 1448 1.07
Jupp Heynckes 1267 1.15
José Mourinho 1258 1.96
Bobby Robson 1228 1.03
Fabio Capello 1203 1.84
Giovanni Trapattoni 1163 1.08
Claudio Ranieri 1071 1.21
Brian Clough 1065 1.00

 

 

 

dingostats weekly-12/25/15

Ho ho ho.

 

Lineals

Arsenal and Empoli are new title holders. Can anyone keep them for at least a month?

Helmond Cup dingoB Sandeman
Holder Arsenal Arsenal Empoli
Next Opp S’hampton(A) S’hampton(A) Inter(A)
Date 26-Dec 26-Dec 6-Jan
Lose? 27% 27% 42%

 


 

dingoT

Methodology: dingoT uses 6 different inputs ranging from ELO ratings to market values. The weight of inputs change as season progresses to reduce the importance of forward looking metrics such as betting odds in favor of actual achievements.

 

 

Merry new year for Spurs fans. You are back in top 16 after a while. For ManU fans it’s deja three as the club drops out of 100+ club around mid season for the third year in a row. Coach change is would be really helpful in our opinion as a dingoach top 5 manager has just been fired.

 

Rank Team Points
1 Barcelona 142.0
2 Real Madrid 134.2
3 Bayern 133.9
4 Juventus 115.4
5 Paris SG 115.4
6 Atlético 115.3
7 Man City 112.3
8 Chelsea 107.5
9 Arsenal 106.1
10 Dortmund 105.6
11 Man United 99.0
12 Napoli 98.8
13 Porto 97.5
14 Sevilla 96.0
15 Leverkusen 94.7
16 Tottenham 94.1

 

No dingoW’s just EPL games.

 

dingostats weekly-12/11/15

Lineals

Double lineals are back in England after a short stay in Greece and Germany each.

Helmond Cup dingoB Sandeman
Holder Man City Man City Bologna
Next Opp Swansea(H) Swansea(H) Genoa(A)
Date 12-Dec 12-Dec 12-Dec
Lose? 9% 9% 47%

 


 

dingoT

Methodology: dingoT uses 6 different inputs ranging from ELO ratings to market values. The weight of inputs change as season progresses to reduce the importance of forward looking metrics such as betting odds in favor of actual achievements.

Is the sun back on shining at the queens’s empire? Spurs sneak into top 16 and Everton into top 32 mainly due to EPL teams good performance in Europe this week. Bayern drops back to 3rd but it is very close and Fenerbahce are out of top 32 as well as Olympiakos.

1 Barcelona 140.5
2 Real Madrid 134.3
3 Bayern 134.2
4 Atlético 117.0
5 Juventus 115.0
6 Paris SG 114.6
7 Man City 111.8
8 Chelsea 108.3
9 Dortmund 106.2
10 Arsenal 106.1
11 Man United 100.8
12 Napoli 98.4
13 Porto 97.2
14 Sevilla 95.7
15 Liverpool 95.3
16 Tottenham 93.8

 


dingoW

Methodology: Using dingoT to rate games on 2 metrics – quality (ie. 1 vs 2 is higher than 8 vs 9) and competitiveness (ie. 16 vs 17 is higher than 1 vs 32) to combine into one rating. 75+ games are listed.

 

12/12/15-Saturday
12:30pm Bayer Leverkusen vs Borussia M’gladbach: 76

 

12/13/15-Sunday

 

2:30pm Villarreal vs Real Madrid: 76

 

dingoach Ratings-December

dingoach Ratings are back with top 10 active managers in all ELO points (gained+protected assuming average drift) and average points. League specific ratings are more precise but too time consuming and at the top of the tables do not matter. Whatever EPL’s reasons for European failure are widely discussed but it is not managerial. I am not sure if a top 10 player in the world plays in EPL right now but top managers are there for sure.

 

Tot ELO Avg ELO
Arsène Wenger 1441 1.07
José Mourinho 1255 1.96
Claudio Ranieri 1054 1.20
Manuel Pellegrini 1000 1.96
Rafa Benítez 987 1.12
Roberto Mancini 870 1.55
Louis van Gaal 783 1.07
Unai Emery 750 1.67
Pep Guardiola 652 2.06
Diego Simeone 540 2.54

 

Tot ELO Avg ELO
Diego Simeone 540 2.54
Pep Guardiola 652 2.06
Manuel Pellegrini 1000 1.96
José Mourinho 1255 1.96
Laurent Blanc 473 1.83
Unai Emery 750 1.67
Roberto Mancini 870 1.55
André Villas-Boas 374 1.46
Marco Silva 186 1.44
Luis Enrique 249 1.31

dingostats weekly- 12/4/15

First of all, I would like to thank WordPress fro making their site unusable. It is free so I will shut up.


 

Lineals

Bayern who took over from Olympiakos is going to keep for a long time. My guess March. Napoli can’t keep on winning.

 

Helmond Cup dingoB Sandeman
Holder Bayern Bayern Napoli
Next Opp Gladbach(A) Gladbach(A) Bologna(A)
Date 5-Dec 5-Dec 6-Dec
Lose? 11% 11% 15%

 

dingoT

Methodology: dingoT uses 6 different inputs ranging from ELO ratings to market values. The weight of inputs change as season progresses to reduce the importance of forward looking metrics such as betting odds in favor of actual achievements.

Big news is Bayern jumps to 2nd overtaking Real. How is the Rafa experiment going Flo? Valencia also dropped out of top 16 which they are planning to stop with the appointment of a rookie British manager. I’m sure it will work. On the top 32 front Fenerbahce sneaks back in and I’m depressed.

Rank Team Points
1 Barcelona 139.9
2 Bayern 136.0
3 Real Madrid 134.4
4 Juventus 115.6
5 Paris SG 115.5
6 Man City 112.2
7 Atlético 110.1
8 Chelsea 109.8
9 Arsenal 107.0
10 Dortmund 106.0
11 Man United 102.2
12 Napoli 99.2
13 Porto 98.0
14 Sevilla 95.4
15 Liverpool 94.7
16 Leverkusen 93.3

 


 

dingoW

Methodology: Using dingoT to rate games on 2 metrics – quality (ie. 1 vs 2 is higher than 8 vs 9) and competitiveness (ie. 16 vs 17 is higher than 1 vs 32) to combine into one rating. 75+ games are listed.

 

12/5/15- Saturday

9:30am Borussia M’gladbach vs Bayern München: 86

12:30pm Wolfsburg vs Borussia Dortmund: 83

2:30pm Valencia vs Barcelona: 88

 

12/8/15- Tuesday

2:45pm Wolfsburg vs Manchester United: 82

2:45pm Benfica vs Atlético Madrid: 85

2:45pm Manchester City vs Borussia M’gladbach: 75

2:45pm Sevilla vs Juventus: 87

 

12/9/15- Wednesday

2:45pm Bayer Leverkusen vs Barcelona: 88

2:45pm Chelsea vs Porto: 86

 

Chelsea-dingoR’s take

There has been a plethora of opinions on why Chelsea is doing horribly. I think every line of thought has been analyzed except for astrology.(Not enough Pisces on the team?) dingoR like many other prediction models were not expecting this performance.  Before the season started we made our points projection based on pts/90 per player and minutes assumptions. Comparing those to 1/3 season dingoR’s give us a good idea who dingoR thinks is responsible:

1- Goalies: We assumed Courtois would play the whole season. Instead he got an early red card against Swansea and then got injured. In 12 games he was expected to contribute 2.8 points to Chelsea. Instead Courtois+Begovic have cost Chelsea 0.9 points. That 3.7 points swing is the biggest difference per any position in our model. This should improve as Courtois comes back and or Begovic plays like his old self.

2- John Terry: We thought John Terry  would play 75% of the minutes available. We were very close (68%). But we also thought (despite a hefty age punishment in our model) he would contribute 0.9 points in that period. Instead he cost the team 1.7 points for a solid 2.6 points. This one is tougher to predict to improve. He is old and maybe he is done.

3-Fantastic Four: Hazard, Fabregas, Oscar and Costa. These players were  mainly responsible for Chelsea’s offense last season. Even though Fabregas and Costa slowed down in second half of last season we still expected them to contribute 10.6 points among them. Instead we got 2 points total. Hazard is the biggest loser with 2.9 points deficit and Fabregas follows him with 2.1. Rest is equally divided between Oscar and Diego Costa. This should also improve; if not we might witness one of the worst projections for dingoR ever.

We’ll review again in 1/2 season and no dingostats tomorrow.

Enjoy!