There has been a plethora of opinions on why Chelsea is doing horribly. I think every line of thought has been analyzed except for astrology.(Not enough Pisces on the team?) dingoR like many other prediction models were not expecting this performance. Before the season started we made our points projection based on pts/90 per player and minutes assumptions. Comparing those to 1/3 season dingoR’s give us a good idea who dingoR thinks is responsible:
1- Goalies: We assumed Courtois would play the whole season. Instead he got an early red card against Swansea and then got injured. In 12 games he was expected to contribute 2.8 points to Chelsea. Instead Courtois+Begovic have cost Chelsea 0.9 points. That 3.7 points swing is the biggest difference per any position in our model. This should improve as Courtois comes back and or Begovic plays like his old self.
2- John Terry: We thought John Terry would play 75% of the minutes available. We were very close (68%). But we also thought (despite a hefty age punishment in our model) he would contribute 0.9 points in that period. Instead he cost the team 1.7 points for a solid 2.6 points. This one is tougher to predict to improve. He is old and maybe he is done.
3-Fantastic Four: Hazard, Fabregas, Oscar and Costa. These players were mainly responsible for Chelsea’s offense last season. Even though Fabregas and Costa slowed down in second half of last season we still expected them to contribute 10.6 points among them. Instead we got 2 points total. Hazard is the biggest loser with 2.9 points deficit and Fabregas follows him with 2.1. Rest is equally divided between Oscar and Diego Costa. This should also improve; if not we might witness one of the worst projections for dingoR ever.
We’ll review again in 1/2 season and no dingostats tomorrow.