EPL Projections- Postscript

Before jumping into our subpar results, I want to review what goes onto dingoR projections:

First, dingoR per player requires 3 ingredients: dingoR(t-2), dingoR(t-1) and age

Of course this is fairly simple to do for EPL players, but for many who have transferred in or promoted certain assumptions about league strength and adaptability are made.

The second important assumption is about minutes played. For some teams injuries or just wrong assumptions have caused significant differences in final points tally(or that’s what I would like to think). In some cases this might have helped us but we’ll never mention that.

I have not done a full analysis with this year’s dingoR scores yet and that probably won’t happen until August when we are making new predictions but here are initial thoughts on some teams. In most cases “no comment” teams performed as expected but in others I do not have anything to say yet(CP, WBA) :

Team Mkt dingoR Final Comment
ManCity 81 80 79 No comment
Chelsea 83 79 87 See below
Arsenal 76 77 75 No comment
Liverpool 71 76 62 See below
ManU 76 75 70 No comment
Everton 63 67 47 See below
Spurs 65 61 64 No comment
S’hampton 43 52 60 See below
Swansea 43 46 56 See below
Aston Villa 39 45 38 See below
Stoke 45 44 54 No comment
WHU 42 43 47 No comment
QPR 38 41 30 See below
Leicester 39 41 41 No comment
Hull 41 40 35 No comment
Crystal P 41 40 47 No comment
Newcastle 46 39 39 See below
WBA 38 36 44 No comment
Sunderland 41 34 38 See below
Burnley 33 28 33 No comment

Chelsea: Both Fabregas and Diego Costa performed much better than expected. One of the assumptions I had was players from Spain and Germany would perform ~90%(10% hit for adaptability adjustment). But this season(not based on dingoR) has shown us that La Liga is actually much ahead of the other 2 right now so this is something to investigate and change going forward.

Liverpool: We had Sturridge as the superstar of this team and he was going to play ~32 games. Instead he played 12 and some as a sub. He cost us ~7 points. Lovren was another disappointment; actually a lot of outperforming CBs from years prior have not done well this year which also gave us another area to investigate.

Everton: Tim Howard with a little bit of Lukaku on the side but mostly Tim *beep Howard who decided to reinvent himself as some kind of Neuer. Well done sir, pride of America.

S’hampton: Hey we got this right! Not very right but mostly right vs markets. dingoR never liked Lallana and credited mostly those they didn’t sell for last year’s success. So that kind of worked.

Swansea: Sigurdsson and Bony were expected to do well and they did. What we did not expect was Fabianski doing so good.

Aston Villa: dingoR did not like Villa players but it liked the fact that they were all young. Unfortunately they are a bit older but have not improved. Check those age assumptions.

QPR: Remy left early which was worth a few points. But then rest of the team especially Mutch and Caulker underperformed significantly. Dysfunction is not an input of dingoR unfortunately.

Newcastle: Post-Cabaye this team was horrible. And still is. dingoR was right for a change.

Sunderland: I think they got lucky; like their neighbors, this is a very bad team. We thought they would be even worse.

Overall, without doing the full analysis it is difficult to pinpoint other problems or instances where we got lucky or unlucky. But we all need a break now to celebrate Galatasaray’s 20th championship!


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