EPL- Extrapolating Week 1

No, no. I am not going to assume players are going to perform as in week 1 but I am going to assume the minutes they played will be the same in every remaining game of the season. Of course teams will change and some players will get injured or dropped but “what if” they played the same squad(with same subs) week in and week out.

 

. Proj Week 1 Dif
Chelsea 79 90 11
Liverpool 76 81 5
ManCity 80 76 -4
Arsenal 77 75 -2
ManU 75 68 -7
Everton 67 63 -4
Spurs 61 62 1
S’hampton 52 54 2
Swansea 46 49 3
QPR 41 45 4
Stoke 44 45 1
WHU 43 44 1
Aston Villa 45 41 -4
Hull 40 41 1
Newcastle 39 41 2
WBA 36 38 2
Leicester 41 36 -5
Crystal P 40 35 -5
Sunderland 34 34 0
Burnley 28 26 -2

 
Wow, Chelsea! In my preview last week I suggested that minutes Schürrle would play was going to be the difference maker for Chelsea.But,  I did not foresee that Oscar/Hazard/ Schürrle would start with Fabregas and Matic behind them.Today’s squad is an ideal team but I doubt Mourinho employs  it versus better teams. If Ramires or Willian(or Mikel) start then the huge 90 points estimate would be dragged down. But still a very impressive lineup.

3 issues with Man City. First, Hart started. Second, Aguero came on as a sub . Third, I do not have any data on Fernando so I assigned him a slightly above average rating. Having said that MC has the deepest squad and therefore can employ better personnel against better teams if necessary.

Liverpool’s core squad is good. We knew that. What we do not know what happens if someone like Sturridge gets injured.

Most of -7 points difference ManU has is due to RVP’s absence. But some is also due to lack of quality in rest of the squad. I assumed in my pre-season projection that they would get at least 1 more decent player such as Vidal or di Maria. If they don’t then more of the same.

At the bottom I do not know whether to call this Pulis effect yet but not giving Dwight Gayle more than 5 minutes was criminal. He should be playing at least 30-45 minutes a game. Leicester’s Vardy and Albrighton were injured, so for now we will give Nigel Pearson a pass.  And finally there is hope for Newcastle as 2 of its worst players(Tiote and Cisse) are injured and another one, Ben Arfa is unpopular.

 

 

 

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