Tournament Predictions- R16 Edition

Lots of memorable second halves and extra times. Not much change in our prediction table:

 

Points are awarded on the following basis:
Winner: 100pts;
Runner-up: 75pts;
Lose Semi-Final: 50pts;
Lose Quarter-Final: 25pts;
Last 16: 10pts;
Others: 0pts.

 

Team Elo 538 GI IS SI Live
Brazil 61.3 65.1 30.3 48.7 47.5 58.5
Netherlands 17.7 8.9 15.1 14.4 17.2 57.5
Argentina 35.3 41.6 22.0 39.5 44.6 55.5
Germany 40.7 38.5 29.9 33.8 36.8 50.5
France 18.5 24.1 17.7 21.9 23.0 43.5
Belgium 15.2 19.0 18.4 14.5 22.1 40.5
Colombia 17.7 21.2 12.3 18.9 18.1 37.5
Costa Rica 2.7 5.0 9.9 3.3 2.0 31.0

 

We have a second model beating the market.(Elo) Infostarda which also uses a similar methodology is very close as well. Goalimpact has been adversely affected by lack of surprises; it needs teams Brazil, Argentina and Germany to lose this round to have a chance to catch up  :

 

1. 538: 353.7

2. Elo: 365.3

2. Sporting Index (pre-tourney): 372.2

4. Infostrada (@SimonGleave): 379.3

5. Goalimpact: 444.9

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