Tournament Predictions- Overall Markets (ft.538)

We had a look at group points this morning. Let’s see how the overall tournament predictors are doing.  Below table has the remaining 16 teams; every other team got a “0”.

 

Points are awarded on the following basis:
Winner: 100pts;
Runner-up: 75pts;
Lose Semi-Final: 50pts;
Lose Quarter-Final: 25pts;
Last 16: 10pts;
Others: 0pts.

 

Team Elo 538 GI IS SI Live
Argentina 35.3 41.6 22.0 39.5 44.6 51.5
Brazil 61.3 65.1 30.3 48.7 47.5 50.5
Germany 40.7 38.5 29.9 33.8 36.8 49.5
Netherlands 17.7 8.9 15.1 14.4 17.2 40.5
France 18.5 24.1 17.7 21.9 23.0 38.5
Belgium 15.2 19.0 18.4 14.5 22.1 30.5
Colombia 17.7 21.2 12.3 18.9 18.1 28.5
Mexico 8.3 7.4 9.3 7.7 7.4 24.5

Costa Rica

2.7 5.0 9.9 3.3 2.0 23.5
Greece 9.1 7.3 12.9 9.0 4.9 20.5
Chile 9.4 21.1 12.4 10.3 11.3 19.5
Uruguay 16.6 17.4 14.3 20.6 19.1 18.5
USA 10.8 8.3 8.8 10.5 4.9 17.0
Switzerland 13.7 9.3 13.4 11.1 10.3 17.0
Nigeria 5.9 6.0 9.3 9.6 7.4 14.0
Algeria 3.2 2.5 9.3 3.9 2.9 13.0

 

We finally have someone beating the market, and 2 others are knocking on the door. Goalimpact needs some of the big favorites to go out early to catch up:

 

1. 538: 338.4

1. Sporting Index (pre-tourney): 354.6

3. Infostrada (@SimonGleave): 361.0

4. Elo: 361.6

5. Goalimpact: 421.4

 

Surprises

1-Netherlands +23.3. Great groups stage; relatively easy path to SF.

2-Costa Rica +21.5. Obvious.

3- Mexico +17.1. All 3 surprises are on the same bracket.

 

Busts

1- Spain -36.8. Booo.

2-Italy -21.1. Boo boo.

3-Portugal –19.1. Boo boo boo.

 

Algeria Representing Western Mediterranean then. (well France as well I guess)

 

Confederations

 

Let’s look at confederations as now getting out of group is just a  slight bump(10 pts) :

Difference with  pre-tourney markets per team:

 

CONCACAF: +11.95

CONMEBOL: +3.52

CAF: -3.12

UEFA: -3.28

AFC: -4.60

 

Here UEFA’s performance looks worse; that has to do with both Italy, England and Spain going out and the path to final. The fact that 4 of 5 CONMEBOL teams are on the same bracket also reduces their max points. CONCACAF is doing well not only due to its performance in first round but also Costa Rica’s relatively easy R16 match-up. African teams are not expected to go beyond R16 but even if one does they would be close to break-even.

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