End Of Group Stage Mtm- Group Points

Half of our prediction competition is finally over and market is beaten by 2 competitors . Let’s have a look:

 

GROUP POINTS

Two of our predictors beat the market. Congratulations to all the participants and good job BSports.

Total deviation from  final points: (lower the better)

 

1- BSports: 59.80

2-NYA (@altmandaniel): 62.55

3-Sporting Index(pre-cup): 62.8

4- ExpGR (@MC_of_A): 69.0

 

The results were very close. Well it was only 32 games so not much deviation was expected to start with. So which were the most surprising teams(vs pre-tourney markets) at the group stage:

 

Positives

1- Costa Rica +5.45

2-Netherlands +3.95

3- Colombia +3.65

 

Negatives

1- England -3.85

2- Spain -3.55

3- Russia -3.05

 

Looks like Europe has not done well. So let’s have a look at average point deviation by confederation to quantify:

 

CONCACAF:  +2.03 pts

CONMEBOL :+1.25 pts

UEFA: -0.24 pts

CAF: -0.61 pts

AFC: -1.88 pts

 

Well it seems that UEFA has not done that bad, an extra win by any of its 13 teams would have made them match the pre-tourney markets. AFC should be ashamed. Its teams were expected to get 2.63 pts on average and they got 0.75 pts. A total of 3 points. Well done.  As for the home continent advantage;  the data will never be sufficient to test it fully but I think there might be something to it if you look at the above table and seeing all the home-like supports for South American teams. Discuss.

 

 

 

 

 

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s