Predictions Mtm- Round 2

We are at halfway point; 32 games played 32 left. How are our predictors doing?

 

Group Points

We have someone who is barely beating the market finally. BSports whose predictions very closely mimicked the markets’ are ahead by a slight margin. Hey; there is nothing wrong if all you are doing is spot just few inefficiencies here and there rather than create a model from scratch. Other 2 competitors are not far behind but since this is just group stage points not much time left:

 

Team NYA BSports ExpGR SI Live
Brazil 8.20 7.50 6.90 7.45 6.70
Mexico 3.50 3.30 3.60 3.55 5.30
Croatia 3.60 3.60 3.00 3.45 4.40
Cameroon 1.70 2.20 2.90 2.25 0.15
Spain 5.95 5.90 6.80 6.55 2.30
Chile 5.40 3.90 4.40 4.15 7.30
Netherlands 3.50 5.00 3.30 5.05 7.40
Australia 1.60 1.70 2.10 1.15 0.50
Colombia 5.40 5.50 4.50 5.35 7.50
IC 3.90 3.20 4.90 4.25 4.70
Japan 3.95 3.50 3.50 3.75 2.20
Greece 3.00 4.20 3.30 3.05 2.00
Uruguay 6.15 4.90 5.40 4.95 4.30
England 4.90 4.80 4.80 4.85 1.80
Italy 3.95 4.90 4.40 5.35 4.40
CR 1.55 1.80 1.90 1.55 6.90
France 7.40 5.70 5.60 5.75 7.90
Switzerland 4.90 4.00 3.40 4.25 5.20
Ecuador 2.55 3.90 5.10 4.25 3.80
Honduras 1.85 2.70 2.00 2.15 0.50
Argentina 6.75 7.00 5.50 7.35 8.20
Bosnia 4.20 3.60 5.00 3.75 1.70
Nigeria 2.60 3.30 4.40 3.35 4.50
Iran 2.90 2.50 1.60 2.25 2.00
Germany 5.40 6.20 5.10 6.45 6.10
Portugal 6.05 4.80 5.50 4.85 2.60
USA 3.05 2.90 2.60 2.65 4.60
Ghana 2.00 2.70 3.40 2.75 2.20
Belgium 4.95 6.40 5.20 5.75 7.90
Russia 5.55 4.30 4.50 5.05 2.60
Algeria 5.20 2.60 4.60 2.45 4.10
Korea 0.95 3.10 2.20 3.35 1.80

 

Total deviation from  live prices: (lower the better)

 

1- BSports 53.45

2-Sporting Index(pre-cup): 53.55

3-NYA (@altmandaniel): 56.5

4- ExpGR (@MC_of_A): 60.05

 

Only 2 groups have teams that deviated from pre-tournament expectations by more than 3 points. In Group B Chile is outperforming by 3.15 at the expense of Spain(-4.25). And in Group D, England is behind by 3.05 points boosting Costa Rica by 5.35. Let’s move on to the more interesting part.

 

Outright 

We are using the following market to track performance:

http://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/football-international/world-cup-2014/mm4.uk.meeting.4401872/2014-world-cup-outright-index

Points are awarded on the following basis:
Winner: 100pts;
Runner-up: 75pts;
Lose Semi-Final: 50pts;
Lose Quarter-Final: 25pts;
Last 16: 10pts;
Others: 0pts.

 

Team Elo 538 GI IS SI Live
Argentina 35.3 41.6 22.0 39.5 44.6 48.5
Germany 40.7 38.5 29.9 33.8 36.8 48.5
Brazil 61.3 65.1 30.3 48.7 47.5 46.5
France 18.5 24.1 17.7 21.9 23.0 38.5
Netherlands 17.7 8.9 15.1 14.4 17.2 33.5
Belgium 15.2 19.0 18.4 14.5 22.1 30.5
Chile 9.4 21.1 12.4 10.3 11.3 26.5
Colombia 17.7 21.2 12.3 18.9 18.1 25.5

Costa Rica

2.7 5.0 9.9 3.3 2.0 19.5
Italy 13.8 9.8 14.2 10.9 21.1 17.5

Ivory Coast

7.6 11.7 13.2 7.9 10.3 16.5
USA 10.8 8.3 8.8 10.5 4.9 14.5
Mexico 8.3 7.4 9.3 7.7 7.4 12.5
Nigeria 5.9 6.0 9.3 9.6 7.4 12.5
Switzerland 13.7 9.3 13.4 11.1 10.3 11.5
Uruguay 16.6 17.4 14.3 20.6 19.1 10.5
Croatia 7.7 6.5 13.7 10.7 7.4 9.5
Algeria 3.2 2.5 9.3 3.9 2.9 7.0
Russia 15.4 12.5 12.3 14.9 14.2 6.0
Ecuador 12.5 12.4 11.6 8.8 10.3 5.0
Portugal 20.6 11.2 16.1 16.8 19.1 3.0
Greece 9.1 7.3 12.9 9.0 4.9 3.0
Ghana 2.6 6.6 11.4 4.5 5.9 3.0
Iran 5.4 3.3 10.0 5.3 2.9 2.5
Japan 7.0 5.2 11.5 10.9 8.3 2.0
Korea 4.2 7.0 11.6 5.8 5.9 0.3
Honduras 2.7 3.0 10.5 3.6 2.9 0.2
Bosnia 9.5 13.1 13.3 6.6 9.3 0.0
England 17.7 16.3 17.0 23.8 17.2 0.0
Spain 40.0 29.2 27.4 41.7 36.8 0.0
Cameroon 1.2 3.6 9.5 2.7 2.9 0.0
Australia 1.1 0.7 6.4 2.6 1.2 0.0

 

In the outright market we are all winning. Well, if you consider if we all have some input into prices in one way or another; no model has beaten us all yet. But one of them is really close and their predictions were widely ridiculed on social media when they came out. Is there a lesson here? Yeah, maybe, no?

 

Infostrada jumped to 3rd but that one is close as well. Goalimpact which had the most radical predictions of all can still win it but needs a few major surprises which is of course possible.

 

1. Sporting Index (pre-tourney): 259.7

2. 538: 263.3

3. Infostrada (@SimonGleave): 290.4

4. Elo: 294.5

5. Goalimpact: 337.0

 

Biggest surprises so far by this market:

1- Spain (-36.8): Not out of the group and only after 2 games!  Brazil can still do worse as a negative surprise if it fails to go out of the group or gets eliminated in 2nd round.

2- Costa Rica (+17.5): The only real Cinderella story of this cup. What a performance.  It is very unlikely that they will be the biggest positive surprise once everything is done but for 2 rounds they have been “it”.

3- England(-17.2): This one will not be here for hat long; once Italy and Uruguay play, the eliminated team will have a bigger negative differential than England. England can’t win this one either.

….Skipping to 6th

6- France (+15.5): This is the most interesting one. France performed as somewhat expected. They won both games in a relatively easy group. They are avoiding Argentina in 2nd round as expected. So it is their impressive performance that pushed their stock up as much. Monitor this one.

 

—-

 

How is dingo doing?

 

Argentina bet: -1.25 pts (this one we’ll lose full 2.75 seems like)

Japan bet: +4.75 pts (looking good so far)

Italy bet: +4/2=+2 pts (thanks Ticos!)

Brazil bet: -2/2= -1 pts (get your act together Scolari)

Total: +4.5 pts (better than last week but still a lot will change)

 

 

 

 

 

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