Predictions MtM- Round1+1extra game

First 17 games are in.Every single team played. So who is beating Mr. Market?

 

Suspense.

 

Nobody so far.

 

Group Predictions

 

Team NYA BSports ExpGR SI Live
Brazil 8.20 7.50 6.90 7.45 6.60
Mexico 3.50 3.30 3.60 3.55 5.25
Croatia 3.60 3.60 3.00 3.45 3.55
Cameroon 1.70 2.20 2.90 2.25 0.90
Spain 5.95 5.90 6.80 6.55 4.65
Chile 5.40 3.90 4.40 4.15 4.85
Netherlands 3.50 5.00 3.30 5.05 7.05
Australia 1.60 1.70 2.10 1.15 0.55
Colombia 5.40 5.50 4.50 5.35 6.55
IC 3.90 3.20 4.90 4.25 5.55
Japan 3.95 3.50 3.50 3.75 2.45
Greece 3.00 4.20 3.30 3.05 2.15
Uruguay 6.15 4.90 5.40 4.95 2.45
England 4.90 4.80 4.80 4.85 3.55
Italy 3.95 4.90 4.40 5.35 6.55
CR 1.55 1.80 1.90 1.55 4.25
France 7.40 5.70 5.60 5.75 6.65
Switzerland 4.90 4.00 3.40 4.25 5.95
Ecuador 2.55 3.90 5.10 4.25 2.75
Honduras 1.85 2.70 2.00 2.15 1.45
Argentina 6.75 7.00 5.50 7.35 8.05
Bosnia 4.20 3.60 5.00 3.75 4.05
Nigeria 2.60 3.30 4.40 3.35 2.25
Iran 2.90 2.50 1.60 2.25 1.65
Germany 5.40 6.20 5.10 6.45 7.75
Portugal 6.05 4.80 5.50 4.85 3.75
USA 3.05 2.90 2.60 2.65 4.15
Ghana 2.00 2.70 3.40 2.75 1.25
Belgium 4.95 6.40 5.20 5.75 6.75
Russia 5.55 4.30 4.50 5.05 3.95
Algeria 5.20 2.60 4.60 2.45 1.85
Korea 0.95 3.10 2.20 3.35 3.25

 

Rank (by sum of absolute value of differences- Sporting Index is pre-cup market) If you score less than SI than you beat the market(minus bid/offer)

 

1- Sporting Index (pre-cup) : 37.30

2- BSports: 39.50

3-NYA (@altmandaniel): 47.15

4- ExpGR (@MC_of_A): 52.20

 

BSports is closest to the market but their picks were very similar to what market suggested to start with. Other 2 models were bullish on Portugal which self-destructed and Algeria which came closer to an upset. Both teams played their most difficult games of group stage so they can outperform.

 

Overall Prediction

 

Points are awarded on the following basis:
Winner: 100pts;
Runner-up: 75pts;
Lose Semi-Final: 50pts;
Lose Quarter-Final: 25pts;
Last 16: 10pts;
Others: 0pts.

 

Team Elo 538 GI IS SI Live
Argentina 35.3 41.6 22.0 39.5 44.6 50.5
Brazil 61.3 65.1 30.3 48.7 47.5 46.5
Germany 40.7 38.5 29.9 33.8 36.8 46.5
Netherlands 17.7 8.9 15.1 14.4 17.2 32.5
France 18.5 24.1 17.7 21.9 23.0 28.5
Italy 13.8 9.8 14.2 10.9 21.1 28.5
Belgium 15.2 19.0 18.4 14.5 22.1 26.5
Colombia 17.7 21.2 12.3 18.9 18.1 22.5
Spain 40.0 29.2 27.4 41.7 36.8 17.5
Switzerland 13.7 9.3 13.4 11.1 10.3 15.5
England 17.7 16.3 17.0 23.8 17.2 15.5

Ivory Coast

7.6 11.7 13.2 7.9 10.3 15.5
Mexico 8.3 7.4 9.3 7.7 7.4 13.5
Chile 9.4 21.1 12.4 10.3 11.3 12.5
Bosnia 9.5 13.1 13.3 6.6 9.3 12.5
Portugal 20.6 11.2 16.1 16.8 19.1 11.5
Russia 15.4 12.5 12.3 14.9 14.2 9.5
USA 10.8 8.3 8.8 10.5 4.9 9.5

Costa Rica

2.7 5.0 9.9 3.3 2.0 6.0
Uruguay 16.6 17.4 14.3 20.6 19.1 5.0
Croatia 7.7 6.5 13.7 10.7 7.4 5.0
Korea 4.2 7.0 11.6 5.8 5.9 5.0
Japan 7.0 5.2 11.5 10.9 8.3 4.0
Nigeria 5.9 6.0 9.3 9.6 7.4 4.0
Ecuador 12.5 12.4 11.6 8.8 10.3 3.0
Greece 9.1 7.3 12.9 9.0 4.9 2.0
Ghana 2.6 6.6 11.4 4.5 5.9 2.0
Algeria 3.2 2.5 9.3 3.9 2.9 2.0
Iran 5.4 3.3 10.0 5.3 2.9 1.8
Honduras 2.7 3.0 10.5 3.6 2.9 0.6
Cameroon 1.2 3.6 9.5 2.7 2.9 0.3
Australia 1.1 0.7 6.4 2.6 1.2 0.3

 

 

1. Sporting Index (pre-tourney): 163.7

2. 538: 180.8

3. Elo: 202.6

4. Infostrada (@SimonGleave): 219.6

5. Goalimpact: 262.0

 

This one is still at an extremely early stage. What is interesting is that Argentina now leads the market. That is not because Argentina has higher odds to win the whole thing vs. Brazil but because its path is easier after group stage to advance.

Netherlands, Germany and Italy had the largest positive jumps so far, while Spain, Uruguay and Portugal were biggest losers. Both Italy and Belgium were deemed overrated by all 4 non-market predictors and so far they are on the wrong path. On the other hand all 4 thought Mexico, USA and Costa Rica were underrated and they have been proven right(at least for now). Unfortunately Iran and Greece which models also unanimously deemed underrated were not as helpful.

 

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