Predictions MtM – Week 1

First Sunday. Been only 4 days and perhaps one of the most exciting WC starts  ever. Lots of goals, few upsets. We compiled lots of predictions prior to World Cup so we can track them and ridicule the predictors over time. First let’s look at the group stage points:

 

Team NYA BSports ExpGR SI
Brazil 8.20 7.50 6.90 7.45
Mexico 3.50 3.30 3.60 3.55
Croatia 3.60 3.60 3.00 3.45
Cameroon 1.70 2.20 2.90 2.25
Spain 5.95 5.90 6.80 6.55
Chile 5.40 3.90 4.40 4.15
Netherlands 3.50 5.00 3.30 5.05
Australia 1.60 1.70 2.10 1.15
Colombia 5.40 5.50 4.50 5.35
IC 3.90 3.20 4.90 4.25
Japan 3.95 3.50 3.50 3.75
Greece 3.00 4.20 3.30 3.05
Uruguay 6.15 4.90 5.40 4.95
England 4.90 4.80 4.80 4.85
Italy 3.95 4.90 4.40 5.35
CR 1.55 1.80 1.90 1.55
France 7.40 5.70 5.60 5.75
Switzerland 4.90 4.00 3.40 4.25
Ecuador 2.55 3.90 5.10 4.25
Honduras 1.85 2.70 2.00 2.15
Argentina 6.75 7.00 5.50 7.35
Bosnia 4.20 3.60 5.00 3.75
Nigeria 2.60 3.30 4.40 3.35
Iran 2.90 2.50 1.60 2.25
Germany 5.40 6.20 5.10 6.45
Portugal 6.05 4.80 5.50 4.85
USA 3.05 2.90 2.60 2.65
Ghana 2.00 2.70 3.40 2.75
Belgium 4.95 6.40 5.20 5.75
Russia 5.55 4.30 4.50 5.05
Algeria 5.20 2.60 4.60 2.45
Korea 0.95 3.10 2.20 3.35

 

This is what people predicted before Thursday. SI was the market but for our purposes is just another model. 22 teams played so far so we will only look at those prices at current rates:

 

Team NYA BSports ExpGR SI Live
Brazil 8.20 7.50 6.90 7.45 8.00
Mexico 3.50 3.30 3.60 3.55 4.65
Croatia 3.60 3.60 3.00 3.45 3.45
Cameroon 1.70 2.20 2.90 2.25 1.00
Spain 5.95 5.90 6.80 6.55 4.65
Chile 5.40 3.90 4.40 4.15 4.85
Netherlands 3.50 5.00 3.30 5.05 7.05
Australia 1.60 1.70 2.10 1.15 0.55
Colombia 5.40 5.50 4.50 5.35 6.55
IC 3.90 3.20 4.90 4.25 5.55
Japan 3.95 3.50 3.50 3.75 2.45
Greece 3.00 4.20 3.30 3.05 2.15
Uruguay 6.15 4.90 5.40 4.95 2.45
England 4.90 4.80 4.80 4.85 3.55
Italy 3.95 4.90 4.40 5.35 6.55
CR 1.55 1.80 1.90 1.55 4.25
France 7.40 5.70 5.60 5.75 6.65
Switzerland 4.90 4.00 3.40 4.25 5.95
Ecuador 2.55 3.90 5.10 4.25 2.75
Honduras 1.85 2.70 2.00 2.15 1.45
Argentina 6.75 7.00 5.50 7.35 8.05
Bosnia 4.20 3.60 5.00 3.75 3.65

 

In last 4 days Netherlands’ expected points went up by 2 (Spain -1.9). Uruguay lost 2.5 points and Costa Rica gained 2.7. There have been other sizable changes but nothing else more than 2. So how is everyone doing? We basically took the absolute value of differences between prediction and current prices. Once everything settles if you have a lower number than SI you would have beaten the market(assuming no bid/offer) :

 

1- Sporting Index (pre-cup) : 26.1

2-NYA (@altmandaniel): 28.4

3- BSports: 29.3

4- ExpGR (@MC_of_A): 36.4

 

It is still early to jump to any conclusions as current live prices also have a strong tint of pre-tournament pricing in them with only 1 game played. But so far no miracles; SI is ahead followed closely by NYA and BSports.  ExpG ratio model is a bit behind not by much.

 

How about the more interesting overall tournament prediction where careers can be made and fortunes might be lost. Predictions and live prices:

Points are awarded on the following basis:
Winner: 100pts;
Runner-up: 75pts;
Lose Semi-Final: 50pts;
Lose Quarter-Final: 25pts;
Last 16: 10pts;
Others: 0pts.

 

Team Elo 538 GI IS SI Live
Brazil 61.3 65.1 30.3 48.7 47.5 48.7
Germany 40.7 38.5 29.9 33.8 36.8 37.7
Spain 40.0 29.2 27.4 41.7 36.8 17.6
Argentina 35.3 41.6 22.0 39.5 44.6 48.7
Portugal 20.6 11.2 16.1 16.8 19.1 20.6
France 18.5 24.1 17.7 21.9 23.0 28.6
England 17.7 16.3 17.0 23.8 17.2 13.6
Colombia 17.7 21.2 12.3 18.9 18.1 22.6
Netherlands 17.7 8.9 15.1 14.4 17.2 32.7
Uruguay 16.6 17.4 14.3 20.6 19.1 5.0
Russia 15.4 12.5 12.3 14.9 14.2 11.6
Belgium 15.2 19.0 18.4 14.5 22.1 23.6
Italy 13.8 9.8 14.2 10.9 21.1 28.6
Switzerland 13.7 9.3 13.4 11.1 10.3 16.6
Ecuador 12.5 12.4 11.6 8.8 10.3 3.0
USA 10.8 8.3 8.8 10.5 4.9 4.0
Bosnia 9.5 13.1 13.3 6.6 9.3 9.5
Chile 9.4 21.1 12.4 10.3 11.3 13.6
Greece 9.1 7.3 12.9 9.0 4.9 2.0
Mexico 8.3 7.4 9.3 7.7 7.4 10.6
Croatia 7.7 6.5 13.7 10.7 7.4 7.5

Ivory Coast

7.6 11.7 13.2 7.9 10.3 15.6
Japan 7.0 5.2 11.5 10.9 8.3 4.0
Nigeria 5.9 6.0 9.3 9.6 7.4 6.1
Iran 5.4 3.3 10.0 5.3 2.9 2.0
Korea 4.2 7.0 11.6 5.8 5.9 5.1
Algeria 3.2 2.5 9.3 3.9 2.9 3.0

Costa Rica

2.7 5.0 9.9 3.3 2.0 6.1
Honduras 2.7 3.0 10.5 3.6 2.9 0.6
Ghana 2.6 6.6 11.4 4.5 5.9 5.0
Cameroon 1.2 3.6 9.5 2.7 2.9 0.6
Australia 1.1 0.7 6.4 2.6 1.2 0.3

 

Again Netherlands gained 15.5 points; Spain lost 19.2. Uruguay was also a loser by 14.1 points (KEYLOR!!!).Other odds changed a little; most interesting being France going up more than 5 points even-though they only beat a 10 man Honduras which looked liked the only team that did not deserve to be in this cup so far. Even Australia which looked lost initially put up a decent fight. So how are our predictors doing just looking at teams which played?

 

1. Sporting Index (pre-tourney): 117.1

2. 538: 147.8

3. Elo: 153.0

4. Infostrada (@SimonGleave): 160.9

5. Goalimpact: 194.5

 

This market is at an extremely early stage as most points are allocated on towards the end of the tournament.

 

 

How about dingo’s predictions. We can’t just have fun at the expense of others. Let’s look at our MtM(Bold ones are current notes):

 

First two are for group stages and here is the pointing system:

Group Winner = 25pts;
Runner-up = 10pts;
Third = 5pts;
Fourth = 0pts.

In Group F Argentina is estimated to have 22.25 pts. Even though we like Argentina in this tournament we think this is a bit high according to our ELO model. So we would sell Argentina at 22.25 (Real market 21.5-23; in fact all markets are 1.5 pts wide)

On this one we can say we already lost. Market is at 23.5. So MtM loss of  -1.25.

Second prediction is also for group stages:

We think bookies overestimate Japans chances and give them 8.75 pts in the above pointing system. If we cross off Japan winning the group then potentially we would lose 1.25 to make either 3.75 or 8.75. Of course they could win the group and then we would be embarrassed and drown ourselves in sake.

Going better. Japan @4.75. So +4.0.

For outright tournament pointing system is as follows:

Winner: 100pts;
Runner-up: 75pts;
Lose Semi-Final: 50pts;
Lose Quarter-Final: 25pts;
Last 16: 10pts;
Others: 0pts.

 

Italy is given 21.5 points. We do not think they will advance further than QF. Also they have roughly 1/3 chance of not getting out of the group. So we like to sell Italy. This is a bit ironic as Dingo will support Italy in the WC in absence of Turkey.(Turkish NT motto: we don’t always make big tournaments, but when we do, we go semi-finals). This would be in half the size of above markets.

 

Our hearts are happy; but brains sad. We sold Italy and boom they beat England and Uruguay lost 3-1. Oh no. @28.5. So a loss of -7/2: -3.5

 

Finally we think Brazil’s chances are a bit underestimated. So:

Brazil is at 48.5 pts. This one is risky as they can be out in second round; but we’ll take our chances. This one also half the size of first two.

 

Brazil was expected to win and they won but nobody was very impressed so this market hardly moved.  Still @48.5, so 0 MTM. Overall a loss of -0.75 so far.  Dingo should find another hobby.

 

 

Still lots of games to watch so enjoy.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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