Infostrada vs Markets

Finally last prediction model is in. Infostarda (@simongleave) also used an Elo model for forecasting but results are a bit different than the other Elo predictions we posted. This might be due to how Elo models are constructed (how many points exchanged per game, whether friendlies count) or home field advantage. If the cup was in South Africa again I do not think we would have gotten as diverse predictions as this cup.

In case of Infostrada prediction; I did not get my hands on full %s for each round but I think I had enough info to get close to what they would be from their outputs.

 

Team GS R16 QF SF F W
Brazil 0.07 0.22 0.16 0.17 0.14 0.23
Cameroon 0.84 0.12 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00
Croatia 0.48 0.34 0.11 0.04 0.02 0.01
Mexico 0.61 0.25 0.09 0.03 0.01 0.01
Australia 0.85 0.11 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00
Chile 0.58 0.25 0.08 0.04 0.02 0.02
Netherlands 0.42 0.35 0.11 0.06 0.03 0.03
Spain 0.15 0.20 0.18 0.17 0.12 0.18
Colombia 0.29 0.36 0.20 0.09 0.04 0.03
Greece 0.58 0.26 0.10 0.04 0.01 0.01
Ivory C 0.63 0.23 0.09 0.03 0.01 0.01
Japan 0.49 0.31 0.12 0.05 0.02 0.01
Costa R. 0.81 0.13 0.04 0.01 0.00 0.00
England 0.27 0.26 0.24 0.13 0.06 0.04
Italy 0.60 0.14 0.17 0.06 0.02 0.01
Uruguay 0.32 0.29 0.20 0.11 0.05 0.04
Ecuador 0.55 0.29 0.10 0.04 0.01 0.01
France 0.26 0.26 0.29 0.11 0.04 0.03
Honduras 0.77 0.17 0.04 0.01 0.00 0.00
Switzerland 0.44 0.37 0.13 0.04 0.02 0.01
Argentina 0.11 0.23 0.21 0.20 0.12 0.13
Bosnia 0.65 0.23 0.09 0.03 0.01 0.00
Iran 0.72 0.18 0.07 0.02 0.01 0.00
Nigeria 0.51 0.32 0.11 0.04 0.01 0.01
Germany 0.21 0.23 0.18 0.17 0.10 0.11
Ghana 0.77 0.15 0.05 0.02 0.01 0.00
Portugal 0.43 0.24 0.19 0.08 0.04 0.03
USA 0.58 0.23 0.10 0.05 0.02 0.02
Algeria 0.75 0.19 0.05 0.01 0.00 0.00
Belgium 0.32 0.40 0.18 0.06 0.02 0.01
Russia 0.30 0.42 0.19 0.06 0.02 0.01
Korea 0.63 0.28 0.07 0.02 0.00 0.00

 

And this is how they compare to markets:

Again we are using

http://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/football-international/world-cup-2014/mm4.uk.meeting.4401872/2014-world-cup-outright-index

 

Points are awarded on the following basis:
Winner: 100pts;
Runner-up: 75pts;
Lose Semi-Final: 50pts;
Lose Quarter-Final: 25pts;
Last 16: 10pts;
Others: 0pts.

 

Team IS SI Dif
Brazil 48.7 47.5 1.2
Germany 33.8 36.8 -3.0
Spain 41.7 36.8 4.9
Argentina 39.5 44.6 -5.1
Portugal 16.8 19.1 -2.3
France 21.9 23.0 -1.1
England 23.8 17.2 6.6
Colombia 18.9 18.1 0.8
Netherlands 14.4 17.2 -2.8
Uruguay 20.6 19.1 1.5
Russia 14.9 14.2 0.7
Belgium 14.5 22.1 -7.6
Italy 10.9 21.1 -10.2
Switzerland 11.1 10.3 0.8
Ecuador 8.8 10.3 -1.5
USA 10.5 4.9 5.6
Bosnia 6.6 9.3 -2.7
Chile 10.3 11.3 -1.0
Greece 9.0 4.9 4.1
Mexico 7.7 7.4 0.3
Croatia 10.7 7.4 3.3
Ivory Coast
7.9 10.3 -2.4
Japan 10.9 8.3 2.6
Nigeria 9.6 7.4 2.2
Iran 5.3 2.9 2.4
Korea 5.8 5.9 -0.1
Algeria 3.9 2.9 1.0
Costa Rica
3.3 2.0 1.3
Honduras 3.6 2.9 0.7
Ghana 4.5 5.9 -1.4
Cameroon 2.7 2.9 -0.2
Australia 2.6 1.2 1.4

 

Looking at its name you would think Infostrada would like Italy. Not this time. Italians’ loss is England and to a lesser extent Uruguay’s gain. Of the top 4 favorites  only Spain is higher vs. markets while Belgium suffers. Of lesser teams USA and Greece can make surprises.

 

The overall prediction page is being updated as well.

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