North Yard Analytics vs Markets

One day left. Dingo Jr. still has not approved exclusive use of TV for soccer. If I tweet “GOAL! Dora scored!” you know why….

Today we are going to look at North Yard Analytics’ (Dan Altman) group stage predictions. These are a lot more interesting than BSports predictions which hardly deviated from consensus view derived from markets.

Here is a bit more about North Yard Analytics

http://danielaltman.com/north-yard-analytics.php

 

And their predictions

http://danielaltman.com/world-cup-2014-predictions.php

 

GROUP A

 

Team NYA SI Dif
Brazil 8.20 7.45 0.75
Croatia 3.60 3.45 0.15
Mexico 3.50 3.55 -0.05
Cameroon 1.70 2.25 -0.55

 

NYA suggests Brazil is even bigger favorite than bookies suggest to win the group mainly at the expense of Cameroon. It will still be a close one between Croatia and Mexico.

 

GROUP B

 

Team NYA SI Dif
Spain 5.95 6.55 -0.60
Netherlands 3.50 5.25 -1.75
Chile 5.40 3.95 1.45
Australia 1.60 1.15 0.45

 

I told you this was more interesting. Chile is predicted to come in 2nd and at a wide margin(+1.9 pts vs 3rd place Dutch).

 

Team NYA SI Dif
Colombia 5.40 5.35 0.05
Greece 3.00 3.05 -0.05
Japan 3.95 3.75 0.20
IC 3.90 4.25 -0.35

 

Closest NYA gets to market is in Group C. Colombia goes through and a close one between Japan and West Africans but Greece not far behind. This might be the most fun group to watch after all.

 

Team NYA SI Dif
Italy 3.95 5.35 -1.40
Uruguay 6.15 4.95 1.20
England 4.90 4.85 0.05
CR 1.55 1.55 0.00

 

Italy gets the Netherlands treatment from NYA. The country might break up if they can’t make it out of the group for 2 WC’s in a row. Not much holding it together anyways. Uruguay comfortably wins the group and Ingherland joins them. No love for Keylor.

 

Team NYA SI Dif
France 7.40 5.75 1.65
Switzerland 4.90 4.25 0.65
Ecuador 2.55 4.25 -1.70
Honduras 1.85 2.15 -0.30

 

Bonjour. France and Suisse  easily go through. Hondurans do slightly worse, and Ecuador much worse.

 

Team NYA SI Dif
Argentina 6.75 7.35 -0.60
Bosnia 4.20 3.75 0.45
Nigeria 2.60 3.35 -0.75
Iran 2.90 2.25 0.65

 

Argentina does not do as well as expected. Blame it on the wine. Bosnians go through. Nigeria comes in 4th reversing places with Nigerians.

 

Team NYA SI Dif
Germany 5.40 6.45 -1.05
Portugal 6.05 4.85 1.20
USA 3.05 2.65 0.40
Ghana 2.00 2.75 -0.75

 

Now getting really interesting. Portugal wins the group! Germans will not be happy with 2nd place. USA is a distant 3rd.

 

Team NYA SI Dif
Belgium 4.95 5.75 -0.80
Russia 5.55 5.05 0.50
Korea 0.95 3.35 -2.40
Algeria 5.20 2.45 2.75

 

Best for the last. Gets really dark for dark horses Belgium. They are out in the first round. Instead Algeria goes through but it’s a very close one among Russia, Belgium and Algeria. Poor Korea can’t get even 1 point.

 

One more left in the series.

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