Elo vs Markets

As I wait @simongleave’s predictions; Icame across this following site that ran a simulation on Elo Ratings and WC.   http://www.profootballlogic.com/sports/soccer/   Of course, I did not miss the opportunity. Well if you have been following my posts you know the drill, I compare everything to betting markets.

http://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/football-international/world-cup-2014/mm4.uk.meeting.4401872/2014-world-cup-outright-index

 

Points are awarded on the following basis:
Winner: 100pts;
Runner-up: 75pts;
Lose Semi-Final: 50pts;
Lose Quarter-Final: 25pts;
Last 16: 10pts;
Others: 0pts.

 

Team Elo SI Dif
Brazil 61.3 48.5 12.8
Germany 40.7 39.5 1.2
Spain 40.0 37.5 2.5
Argentina 35.3 45.5 -10.2
Portugal 20.6 19.5 1.1
France 18.5 22.5 -4.0
England 17.7 17.5 0.2
Colombia 17.7 18.5 -0.8
Netherlands 17.7 18.5 -0.8
Uruguay 16.6 19.5 -2.9
Russia 15.4 14.5 0.9
Belgium 15.2 22.5 -7.3
Italy 13.8 21.5 -7.7
Switzerland 13.7 10.5 3.2
Ecuador 12.5 10.5 2.0
USA 10.8 5.0 5.8
Bosnia 9.5 9.5 0.0
Chile 9.4 11.5 -2.1
Greece 9.1 5.0 4.1
Mexico 8.3 7.5 0.8
Croatia 7.7 7.5 0.2
Ivory C 7.6 10.5 -2.9
Japan 7.0 7.5 -0.5
Nigeria 5.9 7.5 -1.6
Iran 5.4 3.0 2.4
Korea 4.2 6.0 -1.8
Algeria 3.2 3.0 0.2
Costa R. 2.7 2.0 0.7
Honduras 2.7 3.0 -0.3
Ghana 2.6 6.0 -3.4
Cameroon 1.2 3.0 -1.8
Australia 1.1 1.4 -0.3

 

Brazil is underrated; few models say that. So nothing surprising there. If you look at eloratings.net you can see their rating is pretty high overall and they will have an extra 100 points for home field advantage.   Argentina is not expected to do as well. Same goes for Italy and Belgium. In Belgium’s case it might be because of their lack of participation in major tournaments recently; they need time to catch up.In Italy’s case; horrible performances at friendlies are part of the reason.   Of the minnows USA is expected to do better, but I am skeptical of Elo’s for teams that come out of easy qualification groups. They do not play sufficient inter-continental games therefore their scores are inflated. Other than Americans, Greeks are expected to do better according to ELO.

 

We have 4 sets of predictions for overall tournament(Market, Goalimpact, 538 and Elo) and 3 for just group stages.(Market, North Yard and BSports). Let the games begin already, please.

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