538 vs Markets

One more prediction, and more controversy.

 

Here is the full list:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/world-cup/

 

And here is Nate Silver’s write-up:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/world-cup/

 

Mr.Silver already compares his odds to winner markets in Betfair but there is a more robust market out there that will track all your predictions and not just “winners’. Most teams are not expected to win.

 

We have been using:

http://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/football-international/world-cup-2014/mm4.uk.meeting.4401872/2014-world-cup-outright-index

 

Points are awarded on the following basis:
Winner: 100pts;
Runner-up: 75pts;
Lose Semi-Final: 50pts;
Lose Quarter-Final: 25pts;
Last 16: 10pts;
Others: 0pts.

 

So I took 538’s odds of advancement and compared it to this market as in the case of Goalimpact:

 

Team        538          SI          Dif
Brazil
64.7 48.5 16.2
Argentina
41.4 45.5 -4.2
Germany
38.3 39.5 -1.3
Spain
29.0 37.5 -8.5
Chile
21.0 11.5 9.5
France
24.0 22.5 1.5
Colombia
21.1 18.5 2.6
Uruguay
17.3 19.5 -2.2
England
16.2 17.5 -1.3
Belgium
18.9 22.5 -3.7
Netherlands
8.9 18.5 -9.6
Bosnia
13.0 9.5 3.5
Ecuador
12.3 10.5 1.8
Portugal
11.1 19.5 -8.4
Ivory Coast
11.6 10.5 1.1
Russia
12.4 14.5 -2.1
Italy
9.7 21.5 -11.9
Switzerland
9.2 10.5 -1.4
USA
8.3 5 3.3
Mexico
7.4 7.5 -0.1
Ghana
6.6 6 0.6
Greece
7.3 5 2.3
Croatia
6.5 7.5 -1.1
Nigeria
6.0 7.5 -1.5
South Korea
7.0 6 1.0
Costa Rica
5.0 2 3.0
Japan
5.2 8.5 -3.4
Cameroon
3.6 3 0.6
Iran
3.3 3 0.3
Honduras
3.0 3 0.0
Algeria
2.5 3 -0.5
Australia
0.7 1.25 -0.6

 

Well as in the  Goldman Sachs case Brazil’s projection looks a bit too optimistic. Basically they are expected to do much better at the expense of Spain and perhaps Italy and Argentina. Chile replaces Netherlands as 2nd best team in Group B according to 538. Of the smaller teams Bosnia, USA and Costa Rica are expected to better. Finally someone believes in Keylor Navas!  Or does not believe in Immobile/Balotelli to score against him.

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s