Goalimpact vs Market

As WC approaches, and all kind of predictions come in; we only take serious quantifiable ones whether produced by humans or models or both. So as people publish their predictions we will compare them to the market and see how well they do at the end. Later in the year we are planning to run an EPL prediction game in the same spirit so stay tuned for that….

I talked about Goalimpact before and wrote the Italy piece in their very nice WC coverage. Here are their predictions for WC:

http://www.goalimpact.com/2014/06/world-cup-prediction.html

Rank Team R16 QF SF Final WC Change
1 Germany 70.1% 42.4% 30.3% 20.1% 12.4% +0
2 Brazil 73.0% 40.5% 24.8% 14.4% 8.8% +0
3 Spain 69.8% 40.5% 21.2% 10.6% 5.6% +0
4 Belgium 61.5% 31.8% 18.6% 10.1% 4.8% +0
5 Portugal 49.5% 24.3% 15.0% 8.6% 4.5% +0
6 Argentina 65.2% 38.7% 16.5% 8.7% 4.1% +0
7 Netherlands 50.1% 28.6% 14.1% 6.7% 3.8% +0
8 Chile 48.0% 26.4% 13.0% 6.3% 3.6% +0
9 England 56.2% 34.1% 17.9% 7.4% 3.5% +1
10 Russia 48.8% 24.5% 13.8% 7.4% 3.4% +1
11 France 58.7% 28.1% 12.3% 6.7% 3.4% -2
12 South Korea 47.7% 23.9% 13.8% 7.2% 3.3% +0
13 Uruguay 51.5% 30.9% 15.4% 6.6% 3.0% +1
14 Italy 51.2% 30.4% 15.4% 6.5% 3.0% -1
15 Bosnia 51.1% 29.1% 11.5% 6.2% 2.9% +0
16 Algeria 42.1% 20.6% 11.5% 5.9% 2.7% +0
17 Ghana 43.5% 18.2% 10.1% 5.3% 2.5% +0
18 Iran 43.5% 23.9% 9.4% 4.8% 2.2% +0
19 Croatia 46.8% 19.4% 9.0% 4.1% 2.1% +2
20 Costa Rica 41.2% 23.6% 11.4% 4.4% 2.1% -1
21 Nigeria 40.3% 21.8% 8.3% 4.2% 2.1% -1
22 Switzerland 50.2% 21.6% 8.5% 4.5% 2.0% +0
23 Greece 51.1% 20.9% 10.1% 4.0% 1.8% +1
24 Ivory Coast 51.6% 21.3% 10.3% 4.2% 1.8% -1
25 Australia 32.1% 15.7% 7.0% 3.2% 1.7% +0
26 USA 36.9% 14.3% 7.7% 3.7% 1.6% +0
27 Colombia 49.0% 19.6% 9.4% 3.6% 1.4% +0
28 Japan 48.2% 19.1% 8.8% 3.2% 1.4% +1
29 Ecuador 47.1% 19.5% 6.9% 3.5% 1.4% -1
30 Honduras 44.0% 17.3% 6.0% 3.0% 1.3% +0
31 Cameroon 41.5% 14.7% 6.3% 2.3% 1.1% +1
32 Mexico 38.8% 14.1% 6.1% 2.4% 1.0% -1

 

From these we can calculate each team’s odds of going out at each stage:

 

Team 1st 2nd QF SF F W
Germany 29.90% 27.70% 12.10% 10.20% 7.70% 12.40%
Brazil 27.00% 32.50% 15.70% 10.40% 5.60% 8.80%
Spain 30.20% 29.30% 19.30% 10.60% 5.00% 5.60%
Belgium 38.50% 29.70% 13.20% 8.50% 5.30% 4.80%
Portugal 50.50% 25.20% 9.30% 6.40% 4.10% 4.50%
Argentina 34.80% 26.50% 22.20% 7.80% 4.60% 4.10%
Netherlands 49.90% 21.50% 14.50% 7.40% 2.90% 3.80%
Chile 52.00% 21.60% 13.40% 6.70% 2.70% 3.60%
England 43.80% 22.10% 16.20% 10.50% 3.90% 3.50%
Russia 51.20% 24.30% 10.70% 6.40% 4.00% 3.40%
France 41.30% 30.60% 15.80% 5.60% 3.30% 3.40%
South Korea 52.30% 23.80% 10.10% 6.60% 3.90% 3.30%
Uruguay 48.50% 20.60% 15.50% 8.80% 3.60% 3.00%
Italy 48.80% 20.80% 15.00% 8.90% 3.50% 3.00%
Bosnia 48.90% 22.00% 17.60% 5.30% 3.30% 2.90%
Algeria 57.90% 21.50% 9.10% 5.60% 3.20% 2.70%
Ghana 56.50% 25.30% 8.10% 4.80% 2.80% 2.50%
Iran 56.50% 19.60% 14.50% 4.60% 2.60% 2.20%
Croatia 53.20% 27.40% 10.40% 4.90% 2.00% 2.10%
Costa Rica 58.80% 17.60% 12.20% 7.00% 2.30% 2.10%
Nigeria 59.70% 18.50% 13.50% 4.10% 2.10% 2.10%
Switzerland 49.80% 28.60% 13.10% 4.00% 2.50% 2.00%
Greece 48.90% 30.20% 10.80% 6.10% 2.20% 1.80%
Ivory Coast 48.40% 30.30% 11.00% 6.10% 2.40% 1.80%
Australia 67.90% 16.40% 8.70% 3.80% 1.50% 1.70%
USA 63.10% 22.60% 6.60% 4.00% 2.10% 1.60%
Colombia 51.00% 29.40% 10.20% 5.80% 2.20% 1.40%
Japan 51.80% 29.10% 10.30% 5.60% 1.80% 1.40%
Ecuador 52.90% 27.60% 12.60% 3.40% 2.10% 1.40%
Honduras 56.00% 26.70% 11.30% 3.00% 1.70% 1.30%
Cameroon 58.50% 26.80% 8.40% 4.00% 1.20% 1.10%
Mexico 61.20% 24.70% 8.00% 3.70% 1.40% 1.00%

 

Finally we can take these percentages and calculate projected points a la Sporting Index(I used mids for Sporting Index markets):

http://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/football-international/world-cup-2014/mm4.uk.meeting.4401872/2014-world-cup-outright-index

Points are awarded on the following basis:
Winner: 100pts;
Runner-up: 75pts;
Lose Semi-Final: 50pts;
Lose Quarter-Final: 25pts;
Last 16: 10pts;
Others: 0pts.

 

Team              GI               SI              Dif
Germany 29.1 39.5 -10.4
Brazil 25.4 48.5 -23.1
Spain 22.4 37.5 -15.1
Belgium 19.3 22.5 -3.2
Portugal 15.6 19.5 -3.9
Argentina 19.7 45.5 -25.9
Netherlands 15.5 18.5 -3.1
Chile 14.5 11.5 3.0
England 17.9 17.5 0.4
Russia 14.7 14.5 0.2
France 15.7 22.5 -6.8
South Korea 14.4 6 8.4
Uruguay 16.0 19.5 -3.5
Italy 15.9 21.5 -5.6
Bosnia 14.6 9.5 5.1
Algeria 12.3 3 9.3
Ghana 11.6 6 5.6
Iran 12.0 3 9.0
Croatia 11.4 7.5 3.9
Costa Rica 12.1 2 10.1
Nigeria 11.0 7.5 3.5
Switzerland 12.0 10.5 1.5
Greece 12.2 5 7.2
Ivory Coast 12.4 10.5 1.9
Australia 8.5 1.25 7.3
USA 9.1 5 4.1
Colombia 11.4 18.5 -7.1
Japan 11.0 8.5 2.5
Ecuador 10.6 10.5 0.1
Honduras 9.6 3 6.6
Cameroon 8.8 3 5.8
Mexico 8.4 7.5 0.9

 

Few things immediately jump out; Goalimpact thinks the tournament is much more open than markets suggest. Top 4 favorites are expected to do much worse per Goalimpact. The expected points/progression they lose in turn gets distributed to so called minnows. Costa Rica, Algeria , Iran and South Korea are all expected to do much better. One is reminded of 2002 WC where upsets were the norm. Watch this space for more of above…

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