Just the other day Dingo suggested on twitter:
“If anyone has a prediction for WC please use http://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/football-international/world-cup-2014/mm4.uk.meeting.4401872/2014-world-cup-outright-index … or similar to make it quantifiable/trackable. No “I told you so”s pls”
After this rather angry sounding tweet, her are our predictions using the same website. We have decided to use mid markets for now as this is not a betting site in any form.(Also spreads are very wide) We are just using these markets to benchmark our predictions. In general it is not sensible to model WC’s in much detail as they are very few similar games or organizations and therefore we lack historical data that is robust but what’s the fun of having a blog if not make a few predictions now and then:
First two are for group stages and here is the pointing system:
Group Winner = 25pts;
Runner-up = 10pts;
Third = 5pts;
Fourth = 0pts.
In Group F Argentina is estimated to have 22.25 pts. Even though we like Argentina in this tournament we think this is a bit high according to our ELO model. So we would sell Argentina at 22.25 (Real market 21.5-23; in fact all markets are 1.5 pts wide)
Second prediction is also for group stages:
We think bookies overestimate Japans chances and give them 8.75 pts in the above pointing system. If we cross off Japan winning the group then potentially we would lose 1.25 to make either 3.75 or 8.75. Of course they could win the group and then we would be embarrassed and drown ourselves in sake.
For outright tournament pointing system is as follows:
Lose Semi-Final: 50pts;
Lose Quarter-Final: 25pts;
Last 16: 10pts;
Italy is given 21.5 points. We do not think they will advance further than QF. Also they have roughly 1/3 chance of not getting out of the group. So we like to sell Italy. This is a bit ironic as Dingo will support Italy in the WC in absence of Turkey.(Turkish NT motto: we don’t always make big tournaments, but when we do, we go semi-finals). This would be in half the size of above markets.
Finally we think Brazil’s chances are a bit underestimated. So:
Brazil is at 48.5 pts. This one is risky as they can be out in second round; but we’ll take our chances. This one also half the size of first two.
Enjoy the water closet.