BSports vs Markets (Consensus vs Consensus?)

Next in our series is Bsports:

 

Or I should have titled this one: “Consensus vs Consensus”

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/visual-data/world-cup/#0,0,-1

 

Unfortunately they do not have going out of the group odds so instead we will have to use groups stage points to compare like we did with Fwd Elo back in the day:

 

https://dingostats.wordpress.com/2013/12/07/an-elo-look-at-the-draw-expected-points-edition/

https://dingostats.wordpress.com/2013/12/07/an-elo-look-at-the-draw-expected-points-edition-ii/

 

We will also update these before the WC as well.

 

So we are using following markets to compare:

 

http://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/football-international/world-cup-2014/mm4.uk.meeting.4654283/2014-world-cup-group-points

 

GROUP A

Team BSp SI Dif
Brazil 7.5 7.45 0.05
Croatia 3.6 3.45 0.15
Mexico 3.3 3.55 -0.25
Cameroon 2.2 2.25 -0.05

 

Hmm.  Very close. Next group then.

 

GROUP B

Team BSp SI Dif
Spain 5.9 6.55 -0.65
Netherlands 5 5.25 -0.25
Chile 3.9 3.95 -0.05
Australia 1.7 1.15 0.55

 

Here we get something at least. Australia will do better suggests BSports and Spain worse.

 

GROUP C

Team BSp SI Dif
Colombia 5.5 5.35 0.15
Greece 4.2 3.05 1.15
Japan 3.5 3.75 -0.25
IC 3.2 4.25 -1.05

 

Getting more interesting. This is the group of death for predictors perhaps.

 

GROUP D

Team BSp SI Dif
Italy 4.9 5.35 -0.45
Uruguay 4.9 4.95 -0.05
England 4.8 4.85 -0.05
CR 1.8 1.55 0.25

 

No one believes in La Liga goalie of the year(dingoR) Keylor Navas. Go Keylor!

 

GROUP E

Team BSp SI Dif
France 5.7 5.75 -0.05
Switzerland 4 4.25 -0.25
Ecuador 3.9 4.25 -0.35
Honduras 2.7 2.15 0.55

 

Another Central American team and another vote of no confidence from markets.

 

GROUP F

Team BSp SI Dif
Argentina 7 7.35 -0.35
Bosnia 3.6 3.75 -0.15
Nigeria 3.3 3.35 -0.05
Iran 2.5 2.25 0.25

 

OK, this is getting weird now. In financial markets  I would consider it dangerous and expect volatility ahead when the consensus around the consensus gets narrower. Or maybe BSports used markets as an input?

 

GROUP G

Team BSp SI Dif
Germany 6.2 6.45 -0.25
Portugal 4.8 4.85 -0.05
USA 2.9 2.65 0.25
Ghana 2.7 2.75 -0.05

Nothing to see here.

 

GROUP H

Team BSp SI Dif
Belgium 6.4 5.75 0.65
Russia 4.3 5.05 -0.75
Korea 3.1 3.35 -0.25
Algeria 2.6 2.45 0.15

 

Finally we have a slightly different prediction.  Belgium will do better and Russia worse. Where did I hear that before? We already went through that stage and now there is more of a backlash against Belgium doing well. In a day or two I am expecting backlash against the backlash.

 

 

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