Next in our series is Bsports:
Or I should have titled this one: “Consensus vs Consensus”
Unfortunately they do not have going out of the group odds so instead we will have to use groups stage points to compare like we did with Fwd Elo back in the day:
We will also update these before the WC as well.
So we are using following markets to compare:
Hmm. Very close. Next group then.
Here we get something at least. Australia will do better suggests BSports and Spain worse.
Getting more interesting. This is the group of death for predictors perhaps.
No one believes in La Liga goalie of the year(dingoR) Keylor Navas. Go Keylor!
Another Central American team and another vote of no confidence from markets.
OK, this is getting weird now. In financial markets I would consider it dangerous and expect volatility ahead when the consensus around the consensus gets narrower. Or maybe BSports used markets as an input?
Nothing to see here.
Finally we have a slightly different prediction. Belgium will do better and Russia worse. Where did I hear that before? We already went through that stage and now there is more of a backlash against Belgium doing well. In a day or two I am expecting backlash against the backlash.