EPL Predictions- Close

Early in the season we suggested WBA was a much likely relegation candidate than odds suggested. We did well on that one.

Then in mid season EPL dingoR roundup we made two other predictions:

” Our next set of predictions uses expected points for the remainder of the season. Crystal Palace is offered at 15 points for the last 18 games(spread market) so we would like to predict that CP will do better. Chelsea is bid at 35.5 points and we  think that is too high.  The risk with Chelsea is that they buy a decent striker but we think(or hope) that is unlikely.” (written on Jan 2nd)

So how did we do?

Chelsea at the time had 43 points  and Crystal Palace had 17. Here.

Chelsea finished with 82 and CP 45.

That means Chelsea gained 39 points for a loss of 3.5 for dingoR. .

CP gained 28 points for a gain of 13.

 

Net we did very well with an overall gain of  9.5 points. Considering it was on 18 games and 2 teams; we assign ourselves B+. If we add in the 500% return on WBA; we get to A territory.  Was it luck or is dingoR onto something?

First dingoR was just an input; other teams also had similar discrepancies in dingoR vs bookies but predictions we put in were filtered by us(human context in this case worked; sometimes opposite happens the predictions you pick out of a model end up being the wrong ones). Second we were lucky that WBA had a very good start to the season which allowed us to enter into the prediction in the first place. Finally we made 3 predictions and 2 of them were right.That is not much of a sample size. So stay tuned for more next year….

 

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