A Post on NBA Trade Deadline

Dingostats mostly focuses on soccer; and less so in basketball. Part of the reason is that usage of analytics in soccer lags major American sports; and therefore there are many more unanswered questions. But also, even though I had an NBA model for roughly 3 years, I created dingoR player rating system this year and spent more time on soccer analytics. My NBA model-which I now rename dingoN; sounds like dingdoNg so be it dingdoNg- has gone through some revamp lately. I added more weight to team and defensive stats. I think this increases predictive ability of the model but I am not sure if I am assigning too many of the coaching/team effects to individuals . The dingdoNg numbers I use in the blog are not linear; that is you can’t take a 150 and 50 guy and assume they will have the same output as 2 100’s. But I do have the raw rating that correspond to no.of wins per 48 minute played that all of this come from. The ratings are similar to dingoR; here are what dingdoNg numbers mean:

140+Pantheon

130+ Hall of Fame

120+Superstar

110+ Star

100+ Starter

90+  Bench

80+ Europe

80- Someone will get offended if I name this category.

As of last week’s All Star break these were the top 5  players(ranked by dingdoNg- at least 500 minutes played):

Kevin Durant 145.9
LeBron James 137.1
Chris Paul 136.1
Kevin Love 132.0
Anthony Davis 127.5

 

KD is performing at the highest level we have seen in recent years.  Lebron had his athletic peak at 24 with 144.9; he peaked again last year(second peak is more know-how, defensive, shooting related) at 144.2. If KD can keep this up he will have the highest season ever since MJ’s Bulls days.

Last week was also NBA trade deadline. Most winter trades are about accounting or business rather than basketball decision given the complexity of rules. Players are traded either to save teams money by going under salary cap or to move players who do not want to sign extensions. Given this background it was not surprising to see a quiet deadline. Most important trade was by Indiana Pacers sending Granger to 76ers for Turner and Lavoy Allen:

 

Career Last 3 yrs 13/14
Granger 109.4 98.5 99
 —–
Turner 94.6 94.7 96.2
Allen 90.6 90.6 90.8

 

Granger used to be a star/superstar; after his injury few years ago he performs at last starter/6th man level. He is 30 and past his prime; looking at future Indiana did not lose much, and increased chances of keeping its very impressive core together. The only question is whether they lost their edge versus the Heat in what will certainly be Eastern Conference Finals. I think addition of Bynum(99.8) who should replace Mahinmi(86.0) as the Hibbert’s reserve was the key move that tipped the scales towards Pacers; and they are still slight favorites vs. Heat by thinnest of margins.

76ers also sent Hawes to Cavs. 76ers was unique this year. They did not have any player over 25 who played a single second. Now they sent some of those young ones away and have a million draft picks. I liked Hawes he is just moving into his prime and should be more difficult to replace than either Turner or Allen.

 

Career Last 3 yrs 13/14
Hawes 95.9 102.4 100.4

 

The other main news that came out on trade deadline day was the release of Glen “Big Bay” Davis by Magic. According to my Google searches he is on his way to Clippers. He never had 100+ season in his career. He has value as a reserve as long as he does not get more than 15 minutes in playoffs:

 

Career Last 3 yrs 13/14
Big Baby 92.2 95.3 95.4

 

Next week on dingostats:

1-What to watch

2-Soccer Styles-Fashion Week

3-Looking at Euro-2016 Draw.

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