Fallen Angels and Revampers

This is a memorable winter in NYC. Ice has been flowing through Hudson almost nonstop for 3 weeks. It is the Little Ice Age of 2014. Dingo likes it a bit warmer. So he has been inside carefully following the comings and goings in the winter transfer window. Not all leagues and teams show same activity. Galatasaray bought 10 players- all young and relatively cheap. A new direction for big Turkish clubs? Italy and England deserve attention. It is useless to go over team by team but better to look at certain themes. (all currencies are in euros)

FALLEN ANGELS

The problem with winter activity is more about supply than demand. Few teams are willing to sell players in the middle of the season. Players that are available are usually fringe players that do not attract interest from other clubs. There is one group of players who are in supply and in demand. In finance fallen angels are companies that have been reduced from high grade to junk. In soccer we have those too: (last year’s dingoR->this year’s dingoR)

Mata (126.9->87.9): Biggest yoy drop I have seen in all dingoR cases I have seen. Mata had been excellent before last year as well. Unfortunately the price did not reflect the fallen status but just the factt hat he was available is good news for Moyes.

Osvaldo(112.7->94.5): Osvaldo had his best season last year. Perhaps moving to a new league has hurt his performance.  Juventus loaned him for 400K according to Transfermarkt. If he returns to his old self that is a bargain angel.

Hernanes(116.4->87.7): His case is interesting. He has been a very consistent high performer for years. This year not so much. Lazio still acted as if they wanted to keep him. In our view he will prove to be a bargain at 15M.

Berbatov(105.7->87.3): Lazy Berbat.

REVAMPERS

Few teams go overboard in winter. Some have  the money and they see an opportunity to improve or invest in future. Napoli, Galatasaray and Chelsea are the best examples. Napoli spent 14m and bought 3 players 2 of which we can dingoR. Jorginho(121.8)- Verona’s Brazilian midfielder and Ghoulam(122.7)- very promising 22 year old Algerian left back from St.Etienne both look like huge bargains at 5m each. Napoli gets the dingoR “2013/14 Best Winter Transfer Team” award. The award will be presented to them in warm Naples once they send me an airplane ticket.

Most revampers(there is no such word? there is now) are struggling.

West Ham: Bought a couple of average players Boriello(97.8) and Nocerino(98.3) from Italy. For average teams average is good. relegated teams are usually below average. Armero(83.5) which they got from Napoli is one such player.

Fulham: We don’t think Holtby(90.8) will help a lot. Heitinga was mediocre last year(97.7). We can’t rate Mitroglou but if he is not good then Championship awaits.

Sassuolo: They got more players in this window than most teams during summer. The portfolio is big. There are bad ones like  Floccari(83.6), or average ones like Brighi(101.5) or very good ones like Rosi(115.6). 6 new players started the last weekend’s game which perhaps is a record for winter window.

Milan: Rami is solid. Honda a bit of a question mark(very good in CL; not so good in Russia). And then there is Taarabt(61.7). Can’t wait for Bologna-Milan game to watch Taarabt against Diamanti.

 

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