Deep Thoughts on Swansea

Best tweet I have seen regarding Laudrup’s dismissal was:

“Swansea sack Laudrup despite taking only one point fewer this season than they did in the same fixtures last term: http://public.tableausoftware.com/views/ISGPremierLeague20132014/Dashboard1?:embed=y&:display_count=no …

He shows that fixtures might be partly(or wholly responsible) for Swansea’s problems. All of other people blamed injuries. I had a quick dingoR into the situation. I like Laudrup so I’m biased but numbers show that Swansea is performing very similar to last year. Minute weighted average dingoR score after 20 games for Swansea this year was 102.1(definitely good enough to be average if not above). Last year the same number was 104.3. There is a  2.2 dingoRs drop which by year end would correspond to roughly 5-6 points by season end but given Europa League that should be understandable. But why the drop?

I believe that players have the utmost importance as far as a team’s success is concerned. The most important input a manager has team selection and if they have the power buying the right players. I think most managers do not affect  results as much as general population likes to think but except for 10-15% on top tier and maybe 20-25%at the bottom.(numbers are just a hunch). So where did Laudrup go wrong? Nothing really. If we took last year’s Michu (who he brought himself not inherited) performance and replace the avg. dingoR calculation again for this year we get 104.4 which is almost exactly the same as last year.In 2012-13 Michu was a top 5 player according to dingoR and his injury and absence cost Swansea 5-6 points. Definitely not a reason to fire a coach, maybe your physio? 

I hope Laudrup gets another chance at a bigger club(Man U?) with a larger budget and better players soon.

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