NBA Update 1/3

After bragging about WBA projection; let’s turn away  other projections we made this year. Only NBA projections were quantified and came from a model. Projected on current win % here is how dingo is doing. First East.

  Dingo LVH Dif Projected DingDelta LVHDelta
MIA 63 60 3 62.3 0.7 2.3
BRK 59 52.5 6.5 29.5 29.5 23.0
IND 56 53.5 2.5 65.6 9.6 12.1
CHI 49 56.5 -7.5 29.5 19.5 27.0
NYK 46 49.5 -3.5 26.2 19.8 23.3
ATL 44 40 4 44.1 0.1 4.1
CLE 43 40.5 2.5 30.8 12.3 9.8
TOR 38 36.5 1.5 32.1 5.9 4.4
DET 37 41 -4 39.4 2.4 1.6
WAS 37 42 -5 37.6 0.6 4.4
CHA 31 27.5 3.5 37.9 6.9 10.4
MIL 26 28.5 -2.5 16.4 9.6 12.1
BOS 25 27.5 -2.5 36.4 11.4 8.9
ORL 23 24.5 -1.5 25.3 2.3 0.8
PHI 19 16.5 2.5 22.1 3.1 5.6
             
        Sum 133.5 149.7

 

Despite Dingo’s spectacular failure at projecting Nets’ horrible start we are still beating oddsmakers by 16.2 games. Mean squared errors wise dingo is still ahead handily. So far so good.  West:

  Dingo LVH Dif Projected DingDelta LVHDelta
LAC 56 57 -1 54.7 1.3 2.3
SAS 56 55.5 0.5 66.3 10.3 10.8
MEM 55 49 6 32.8 22.2 16.2
OKC 53 50.5 2.5 68.9 15.9 18.4
DAL 49 44 5 49.2 0.2 5.2
HOU 49 54.5 -5.5 53.6 4.6 0.9
DEN 47 47 0 47.8 0.8 0.8
GSW 41 49.5 -8.5 42.6 1.6 6.9
NOP 40 40 0 37.6 2.4 2.4
POR 38 38.5 -0.5 66.8 28.8 28.3
MIN 37 41 -4 41.0 4.0 0.0
LAL 34 33.5 0.5 39.4 5.4 5.9
UTA 30 27.5 2.5 20.5 9.5 7.0
SAC 29 31.5 -2.5 23.9 5.1 7.6
PHO 20 21.5 -1.5 47.8 27.8 26.3
             
        Sum 139.8 139.0

None of the NBA people(analytic or not) predicted Portland’s amazing start and Suns’ relative success. What is hurting Dingo though is Grizzlies. It hurts numbers wise but also due to the fact that it has a very stats savvy organisation. MSE-wise Dingo is even worse. We’ll give Dingo a passing B so far even though we are beating the oddsmakers. It is still early and Nets and Grizzlies are problematic.

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