An ELO Look at the Draw- Expected Points Edition

What are expected group points according to forward looking ELO vs oddsmakers? Still very early for betting markets to settle and ELO ratings will change as teams prepare for WC but still fun to have a peek.   Groups A-D for now.

ELO Bookie Dif.
Brazil 7.6 7.1 0.5
Croatia 3.7 3.7 0
Mexico 3.7 3.5 0.2
Cameroon 1.8 2.3 -0.5

 

Brazil had the biggest adjustment as the home team and a South American team in forward adjustments. Perhaps that is skewing ELO points higher. Cameroon is the second weakest team according to ELO in the whole cup.

ELO Bookie Dif.
Spain 6.2 6.1 0.1
Netherlands 4.8 5 -0.2
Chile 4.1 3.9 0.2
Australia 1.6 1.5 0.1

 

Nothing to say.

ELO Bookie Dif.
Colombia 5.6 5.7 -0.1
Greece 4.1 3.1 1.0
IC 3.8 3.8 0.0
Japan 2.9 3.6 -0.7

 

This one is fairly interesting. Greece and Japan switch places between ELO and bookies. This one is worth keeping an eye on as the cup gets closer. Japan as an Asian team had a fairly large downward revision in forward adjustments so that is playing a part.

ELO Bookie Dif.
Uruguay 4.9 5.0 -0.1
England 4.9 4.7 0.2
Italy 4.5 5.4 -0.9
CR 2.2 1.4 0.8

 

Uruguay, Italy and England are extremely close in ELO and might switch places after one or two friendlies. Case of Costa Rica is more interesting; I already adjusted its ELO down and it is still being undervalued by bookies.

Groups E-H later in the weekend.

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One comment

  1. Pingback: BSports vs Markets (Consensus vs Consensus?) | dingostats

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