As I mentioned in my last update I had been working on a new rating model for a while and I finally have something that I have some confidence in to help me guide while analyzing players and make some predictions. The new rating is called dingoR and I’m ready for some questions:
What model are you talking about?
It is just a simple rating system that I will use going forward to rate/rank soccer players.
Don’t we already have these?
Sure. WhoScored, Squawka, Bloomberg and others rate players using different methods. I wanted to introduce another approach where efficiency is stressed more heavily when looking at players. For example I would rate a player who scores 10 goals in 20 shots higher than the player who scored the same number of goals in 50 shots. In most other ratings more shots equal a higher score.
So you’re saying DingoR is better than these other models?
No. Not at all. It is just different. Consider it a new tool in the toolbox among others. Over time I can analyze the predictive power of these ratings but not now. Too tired.
So what data do you use?
Everything I use is from WhoScored.com or transfermarkt.com(which surprisingly has a lot of information) My ratings will be limited to leagues/seasons that these websites have detailed data. Top 5 + Holland+ Russia+ Brazil+ MLS + Championship +European Cups.
No Turkish League???
Unfortunately, no. Whether the game was “fixed” is not part of the data that’s available anyways.
How will the ratings look like?
All the players will have a dingoR. 100 rating would mean the player is an average player. Above 110 is a very good player and over 120 is a star. Below 90 should be on bench and below 80 on the stands. I think Messi is only one above 175.
What are you going to do with this dingoR?
I will use the ratings in my blog, maybe on twitter. I will post few predictions. I will analyze transfers. It is not for commercial use; that’s why I am not posting my formula.
We’re bored already. Tell us something interesting.
Hmm. I only finished rating EPL and most of Serie A as well as few other European big teams. So I do not have the complete data set yet. But the worst dingoR rated (ok, not the worst since I don’t have data for 3 relegated teams, hopefully I’ll get those soon) in EPL was Jonjo Shelvey.
That was not interesting. What else?
Ok. I’m pretty sure Andros Townsend of Spurs will be one of the worst if not the worst rated this year. I also would have predicted that WBA would be relegated; currently they have a 4% chance of going down according to bookies. So much for dingoR’s predictions. Actually I think those odds are ridiculously low right now. Let’s call this my first model based prediction; I think WBA’s relegation odds will be at least 10% (perhaps as high as 20-25%) at some point during the remainder of the season. #timestamp
Model still needs a lot of work. For example I can’t rate goalies as I could not find/create a metric that is consistent year over year. I refuse to believe that the performance of a goalie next year has no correlation to their performance this year, so until I can find something useful I am not rating goalies.
Any comments, questions @dingosports